Run-total lens: OVER 11.14 in Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gabriel Hughes vs Freddy Peralta
Weather: 77.8°F, Wind 10.1 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 32%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 11.14.
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.95
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.95
Odds-105
Confidence0.698
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Zack Littell
Run-total lens: OVER 8.95 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Zack Littell
Weather: 84.3°F, Wind 4.1 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 54%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.95.
Run Total 3
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 9.05
PENDING
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-114
Confidence0.671
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRandy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Randy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan
Weather: 95.1°F, Wind 5.9 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 28%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.05.
Run Total 4
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.6
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.6
Odds-115
Confidence0.645
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEduardo Rodriguez vs Randy Vásquez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.6 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Randy Vásquez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.6.
Run Total 5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-112
Confidence0.562
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Henderson vs Jared Jones
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Henderson vs Jared Jones
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 6
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.95
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.95
Odds-102
Confidence0.537
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Javier Assad
Run-total lens: OVER 8.95 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs Javier Assad
Weather: 74.9°F, Wind 5.6 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 80%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.91 to 8.95 (+0.04).
Run Total 7
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.32
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.32
Odds-107
Confidence0.532
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Weathers vs Hunter Dobbins
Run-total lens: OVER 8.32 in New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs Hunter Dobbins
Weather: 76.6°F, Wind 3.3 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.27 to 8.32 (+0.05).
Run Total 8
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 9.05
PENDING
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-118
Confidence0.301
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Gusto vs Grant Holmes
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Gusto vs Grant Holmes
Weather: 85.2°F, Wind 5.9 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 54%, P.O.P. 15% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.05 (+0.05).
Run Total 9
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets — OVER 7.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.286
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJoey Cantillo vs Sean Manaea
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Joey Cantillo vs Sean Manaea
Weather: 79.1°F, Wind 7.2 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 45%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 10
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.259
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHayden Wesneski vs Trey Yesavage
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hayden Wesneski vs Trey Yesavage
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 16.0 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 10% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 11
San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers — OVER 7.59
PENDING
LeanOVER 7.59
Odds-118
Confidence0.25
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBlade Tidwell vs MacKenzie Gore
Run-total lens: OVER 7.59 in San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Blade Tidwell vs MacKenzie Gore
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.59.
Run Total 12
Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.05
PENDING
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-115
Confidence0.199
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJ.T. Ginn vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: J.T. Ginn vs Brady Singer
Weather: 87.6°F, Wind 1.8 mph E (in from CF), Humidity 31%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.05.
Run Total 13
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 9.0
PENDING
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.195
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavis Martin vs Patrick Sandoval
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin vs Patrick Sandoval