Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Weather: 65.3°F, Wind 12.0 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 52%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 7.25
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.25
Odds-111
Confidence0.53
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.25 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.41 (-0.59).
Run Total 3
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 10.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.526
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 5:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 69.0°F, Wind 9.8 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 22%, P.O.P. 13% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 10.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 4
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.506
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 4.5 (-3.5).
Run Total 5
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers — OVER 7.75
WIN
LeanOVER 7.75
Odds-113
Confidence0.482
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.75 in Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: 75.2°F, Wind 15.7 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 40%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.0 to 8.0 (+1).
Run Total 6
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.451
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 72.7°F, Wind 9.7 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.73 to 8.45 (-0.28).
Run Total 7
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.426
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.91 to 8.0 (-0.91).
Run Total 8
Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 7.94
WIN
LeanOVER 7.94
Odds-106
Confidence0.348
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.94 in Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.91 (+0.41).
Run Total 9
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 7.55
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.55
Odds-117
Confidence0.34
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.55 in Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 6.56 (-0.94).
Run Total 10
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-116
Confidence0.315
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.45 to 8.0 (-3.45).
Run Total 11
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.084
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals — UNDER 7.9
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.9
Odds-109
Confidence0.0
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.9 in Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 77.4°F, Wind 11.8 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 43%, P.O.P. 15% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 7.9 (-0.24).