New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 7:05 PM ET
Odds-217
Confidence0.749 (data points: 20.881/23.881)
PitchingCam Schlittler vs Shane Baz
VenueYankee Stadium
The card still points to New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles, with the cleaner route to 27 outs sitting on this side.
From the road angle, New York Yankees profiles to create repeat pressure through deeper counts and better traffic conversion. New York Yankees is 5-1 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Baltimore Orioles has enough talent to push back, but this side asks for cleaner execution in leverage spots than they’ve shown lately. Baltimore Orioles is 1-5 over its last six, so current rhythm matters in the handicap.
Expanded game context
Weather: 65.3°F, Wind 12.0 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 52%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Mike Estabrook; First Base: Malachi Moore; Second Base: Lance Barrett; Third Base: Alfonso Márquez
New York Yankees Injuries: Aaron Judge (Active), Amed Rosario (Active), Austin Wells (Active), Ben Rice (Active), Brent Headrick (Active), Cam Schlittler (Active), Camilo Doval (Active), Cody Bellinger (Active)
Baltimore Orioles Injuries: Adley Rutschman (Active), Andrew Kittredge (Active), Anthony Nunez (Active), Blaze Alexander (Active), Brandon Young (Active), Cade Povich (Active), Chris Bassitt (Active), Coby Mayo (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: New York Yankees: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 7.4/9 starters on average. in stable-lineup comps (≥8 shared), New York Yankees went 3-0. Baltimore Orioles: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 7.0/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Baltimore Orioles went 0-2; in stable-lineup comps (≥8 shared), Baltimore Orioles went 0-2.
Line Movement: Line movement unavailable.
Pick 2
New York Mets over Colorado Rockies
WIN
New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 5:40 PM ET
Odds-138
Confidence0.637 (data points: 19.807/24.203)
PitchingHuascar Brazobán vs Tomoyuki Sugano
VenueCoors Field
I’m staying with New York Mets over Colorado Rockies at -138; the edge is built on steadier inning control, not one swing variance.
For the visitors, New York Mets has the more repeatable offensive script: quality contact pockets and fewer empty innings. The probable pitching matchup is Huascar Brazobán against Tomoyuki Sugano, which sets the game’s early tone.
There is a live counterargument with Colorado Rockies, though they likely need sharper bullpen bridge innings to flip this script. New York Mets is 3-3 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Expanded game context
Weather: 69.0°F, Wind 9.8 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 22%, P.O.P. 13% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: D.J. Reyburn; First Base: James Hoye; Second Base: Sean Barber; Third Base: John Libka
New York Mets Injuries: Andy Ibáñez (Active), Austin Slater (Active), Austin Warren (Active), Bo Bichette (Active), Brett Baty (Active), Brooks Raley (Active), Carson Benge (Active), Christian Scott (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: New York Mets: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.6/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), New York Mets went 1-2. Colorado Rockies: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.6/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Colorado Rockies went 0-2.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -149 to -161 (-12), toward the pick side.
Pick 3
Kansas City Royals over Cleveland Guardians
WIN
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Odds-115
Confidence0.353 (data points: 19.246/28.457)
PitchingMichael Wacha vs Tanner Bibee
VenueKauffman Stadium
Kansas City Royals over Cleveland Guardians at -115 remains the best side, especially if this game is decided in middle-to-late leverage.
Kansas City Royals can win this game without forcing chaos, which is exactly what you want when backing a road side. Kansas City Royals is 4-2 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Cleveland Guardians can absolutely make this uncomfortable, but their margin narrows if the game turns into one-run baseball late. Cleveland Guardians is 3-3 over its last six, so current rhythm matters in the handicap.
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Vic Carapazza; First Base: John Bacon; Second Base: Edwin Moscoso; Third Base: Nic Lentz
Kansas City Royals Injuries: Alex Lange (Active), Bobby Witt Jr. (Active), Carter Jensen (Active), Cole Ragans (Active), Daniel Lynch IV (Active), Elias Díaz (Active), Isaac Collins (Active), Jac Caglianone (Active)
Cleveland Guardians Injuries: Angel Martínez (Active), Austin Hedges (Active), Bo Naylor (Active), Brayan Rocchio (Active), Cade Smith (Active), Chase DeLauter (Active), Colin Holderman (Active), Connor Brogdon (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Kansas City Royals: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.8/9 starters on average. Cleveland Guardians: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.2/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Cleveland Guardians went 1-2.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -124 to 102 (+226), away from the pick side.
Pick 4
Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays
WIN
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Odds-127
Confidence0.236 (data points: 17.799/28.799)
PitchingNick Martinez vs Eric Lauer
VenueTropicana Field
The value case holds on Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays at -127, where the stronger full-game shape still belongs to that ticket.
The case for Tampa Bay Rays starts with consistency; they are better positioned to cash medium opportunities before late innings tighten. Tampa Bay Rays is 5-1 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
The home path for Toronto Blue Jays is real, yet this ticket assumes they do not consistently win the highest-pressure plate appearances. Toronto Blue Jays is 3-3 over its last six, so current rhythm matters in the handicap.
Expanded game context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: David Rackley; First Base: Chris Guccione; Second Base: Nestor Ceja; Third Base: Charlie Ramos
Tampa Bay Rays Injuries: Ben Williamson (Active), Bryan Baker (Active), Casey Legumina (Active), Cedric Mullins (Active), Chandler Simpson (Active), Cole Sulser (Active), Drew Rasmussen (Active), Garrett Cleavinger (Active)
Toronto Blue Jays Injuries: Andrés Giménez (Active), Brandon Valenzuela (Active), Braydon Fisher (Active), Daulton Varsho (Active), Davis Schneider (Active), Dylan Cease (Active), Eric Lauer (Active), Ernie Clement (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Tampa Bay Rays: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.6/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Tampa Bay Rays went 1-1. Toronto Blue Jays: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.8/9 starters on average.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -118 to -123 (-5), toward the pick side.
Pick 5
Miami Marlins over Philadelphia Phillies
LOSS
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Keeping Miami Marlins over Philadelphia Phillies at -112 is the right read, because this matchup favors the team with more reliable run prevention lanes.
As the away club, Miami Marlins carries a stronger chance to stack competitive at-bats and control tempo. Miami Marlins is 3-3 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Philadelphia Phillies is dangerous at home, but this projection still leans against them in a game that should hinge on sequencing. Philadelphia Phillies is 5-1 over its last six, so current rhythm matters in the handicap.
Expanded game context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Bruce Dreckman; First Base: Mark Wegner; Second Base: Carlos Torres; Third Base: Nate Tomlinson
Miami Marlins Injuries: Andrew Nardi (Active), Anthony Bender (Active), Calvin Faucher (Active), Chris Paddack (Active), Christopher Morel (Active), Connor Norby (Active), Esteury Ruiz (Active), Eury Pérez (Active)
Philadelphia Phillies Injuries: Aaron Nola (Active), Adolis García (Active), Alec Bohm (Active), Andrew Painter (Active), Brad Keller (Active), Brandon Marsh (Active), Bryce Harper (Active), Bryson Stott (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Miami Marlins: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 5.2/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Miami Marlins went 3-2. Philadelphia Phillies: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.8/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Philadelphia Phillies went 1-1.
Line Movement: Line movement unavailable.
Pick 6
Chicago White Sox over Los Angeles Angels
In Progress
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 9:38 PM ET
The card still points to Chicago White Sox over Los Angeles Angels, with the cleaner route to 27 outs sitting on this side.
From the road angle, Chicago White Sox profiles to create repeat pressure through deeper counts and better traffic conversion. The probable pitching matchup is Davis Martin against José Soriano, which sets the game’s early tone.
Los Angeles Angels has enough talent to push back, but this side asks for cleaner execution in leverage spots than they’ve shown lately. Chicago White Sox is 5-1 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Cory Blaser; First Base: Jansen Visconti; Second Base: Andy Fletcher; Third Base: Alex Tosi
Chicago White Sox Injuries: Andrew Benintendi (Active), Anthony Kay (Active), Bryan Hudson (Active), Chase Meidroth (Active), Colson Montgomery (Active), Davis Martin (Active), Derek Hill (Active), Drew Romo (Active)
Los Angeles Angels Injuries: Adam Frazier (Active), Brent Suter (Active), Bryce Teodosio (Active), Chase Silseth (Active), Drew Pomeranz (Active), Jack Kochanowicz (Active), Jo Adell (Active), Jorge Soler (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Chicago White Sox: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.8/9 starters on average. Los Angeles Angels: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.2/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Los Angeles Angels went 1-2.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from 135 to -10000 (-10135), toward the pick side.
Pick 7
Seattle Mariners over Atlanta Braves
In Progress
Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 9:40 PM ET
I’m staying with Seattle Mariners over Atlanta Braves at -139; the edge is built on steadier inning control, not one swing variance.
For the visitors, Seattle Mariners has the more repeatable offensive script: quality contact pockets and fewer empty innings. Seattle Mariners is 3-3 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
There is a live counterargument with Atlanta Braves, though they likely need sharper bullpen bridge innings to flip this script. Atlanta Braves is 4-2 over its last six, so current rhythm matters in the handicap.
Expanded game context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Lance Barksdale; First Base: Will Little; Second Base: Ryan Additon; Third Base: Ryan Wills
Seattle Mariners Injuries: Alex Hoppe (Active), Andrés Muñoz (Active), Bryan Woo (Active), Cal Raleigh (Active), Cole Young (Active), Connor Joe (Active), Cooper Criswell (Active), Dominic Canzone (Active)
Atlanta Braves Injuries: Aaron Bummer (Active), Austin Riley (Active), Bryce Elder (Active), Carlos Carrasco (Active), Chris Sale (Active), Didier Fuentes (Active), Dominic Smith (Active), Drake Baldwin (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Seattle Mariners: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 7.4/9 starters on average. in stable-lineup comps (≥8 shared), Seattle Mariners went 1-1. Atlanta Braves: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.8/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Atlanta Braves went 2-1; in stable-lineup comps (≥8 shared), Atlanta Braves went 2-0.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -159 to -146 (+13), away from the pick side.
Pick 8
San Diego Padres over San Francisco Giants
In Progress
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 9:45 PM ET
San Diego Padres over San Francisco Giants at -133 remains the best side, especially if this game is decided in middle-to-late leverage.
San Diego Padres can win this game without forcing chaos, which is exactly what you want when backing a road side. The probable pitching matchup is Randy Vásquez against Trevor McDonald, which sets the game’s early tone.
San Francisco Giants can absolutely make this uncomfortable, but their margin narrows if the game turns into one-run baseball late. San Diego Padres is 1-5 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Todd Tichenor; First Base: Adam Hamari; Second Base: Tripp Gibson; Third Base: Clint Vondrak
San Diego Padres Injuries: Adrian Morejon (Active), Bradgley Rodriguez (Active), Bryce Johnson (Active), Fernando Tatis Jr. (Active), Freddy Fermin (Active), Gavin Sheets (Active), Griffin Canning (Active), Jackson Merrill (Active)
San Francisco Giants Injuries: Adrian Houser (Active), Bryce Eldridge (Active), Caleb Kilian (Active), Casey Schmitt (Active), Christian Koss (Active), Drew Gilbert (Active), Eric Haase (Active), Gregory Santos (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: San Diego Padres: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.6/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), San Diego Padres went 0-2. San Francisco Giants: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 7.0/9 starters on average.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -145 to 998 (+1143), away from the pick side.
Pick 9
Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers
WIN
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 6:10 PM ET
Odds-118
Confidence0.096 (data points: 15.477/28.244)
PitchingPayton Tolle vs Tyler Holton
VenueComerica Park
The value case holds on Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers at -118, where the stronger full-game shape still belongs to that ticket.
The case for Boston Red Sox starts with consistency; they are better positioned to cash medium opportunities before late innings tighten. The probable pitching matchup is Payton Tolle against Tyler Holton, which sets the game’s early tone.
The home path for Detroit Tigers is real, yet this ticket assumes they do not consistently win the highest-pressure plate appearances. Boston Red Sox is 2-4 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Expanded game context
Weather: 75.2°F, Wind 15.7 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 40%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Dan Iassogna; First Base: Adam Beck; Second Base: Jonathan Parra; Third Base: Jeremie Rehak
Boston Red Sox Injuries: Alec Gamboa (Active), Andruw Monasterio (Active), Aroldis Chapman (Active), Brayan Bello (Active), Caleb Durbin (Active), Carlos Narváez (Active), Ceddanne Rafaela (Active), Connelly Early (Active)
Detroit Tigers Injuries: Brant Hurter (Active), Brenan Hanifee (Active), Burch Smith (Active), Colt Keith (Active), Dillon Dingler (Active), Drew Anderson (Active), Enmanuel De Jesus (Active), Framber Valdez (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Boston Red Sox: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 7.0/9 starters on average. Detroit Tigers: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.4/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Detroit Tigers went 2-1.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from 191 to 156 (-35), toward the pick side.
Pick 10
Chicago Cubs over Cincinnati Reds
WIN
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Odds-216
Confidence0.067 (data points: 8.178/15.332)
PitchingEdward Cabrera vs Chase Petty
VenueWrigley Field
Keeping Chicago Cubs over Cincinnati Reds at -216 is the right read, because this matchup favors the team with more reliable run prevention lanes.
As the away club, Chicago Cubs carries a stronger chance to stack competitive at-bats and control tempo. Chicago Cubs is 6-0 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Cincinnati Reds is dangerous at home, but this projection still leans against them in a game that should hinge on sequencing. Cincinnati Reds is 1-5 over its last six, so current rhythm matters in the handicap.
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Manny Gonzalez; First Base: Jacob Metz; Second Base: Tom Hanahan; Third Base: Scott Barry
Chicago Cubs Injuries: Alex Bregman (Active), Ben Brown (Active), Carson Kelly (Active), Colin Rea (Active), Corbin Martin (Active), Daniel Palencia (Active), Dansby Swanson (Active), Edward Cabrera (Active)
Cincinnati Reds Injuries: Andrew Abbott (Active), Blake Dunn (Active), Brady Singer (Active), Brock Burke (Active), Chase Burns (Active), Chase Petty (Active), Connor Phillips (Active), Dane Myers (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Chicago Cubs: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 7.6/9 starters on average. in stable-lineup comps (≥8 shared), Chicago Cubs went 3-0. Cincinnati Reds: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.8/9 starters on average.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -213 to -163 (+50), away from the pick side.
Pick 11
Houston Astros over Los Angeles Dodgers
LOSS
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 8:10 PM ET
Odds-201
Confidence0.006 (data points: 12.0/23.858)
PitchingSteven Okert vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
VenueDaikin Park
The card still points to Houston Astros over Los Angeles Dodgers at -201, with the cleaner route to 27 outs sitting on this side.
From the road angle, Houston Astros profiles to create repeat pressure through deeper counts and better traffic conversion. Houston Astros is 3-3 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers has enough talent to push back, but this side asks for cleaner execution in leverage spots than they’ve shown lately. Los Angeles Dodgers is 2-4 over its last six, so current rhythm matters in the handicap.
Expanded game context
Weather: 72.7°F, Wind 9.7 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Mark Ripperger; First Base: Shane Livensparger; Second Base: Dan Merzel; Third Base: Dan Bellino
Houston Astros Injuries: AJ Blubaugh (Active), Bennett Sousa (Active), Braden Shewmake (Active), Brice Matthews (Active), Bryan Abreu (Active), Bryan King (Active), Cam Smith (Active), Carlos Correa (Active)
Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries: Alex Call (Active), Alex Freeland (Active), Alex Vesia (Active), Andy Pages (Active), Blake Treinen (Active), Dalton Rushing (Active), Edgardo Henriquez (Active), Emmet Sheehan (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Houston Astros: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.0/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Houston Astros went 3-1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 7.2/9 starters on average. in stable-lineup comps (≥8 shared), Los Angeles Dodgers went 0-2.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from 172 to 169 (-3), toward the pick side.
Pick 12
Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals
LOSS
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction — 2026-05-04 • First pitch: 7:45 PM ET
Odds-126
Confidence0.000 (data points: 13.356/26.71)
PitchingChad Patrick vs Kyle Leahy
VenueBusch Stadium
I’m staying with Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals at -126; the edge is built on steadier inning control, not one swing variance.
For the visitors, Milwaukee Brewers has the more repeatable offensive script: quality contact pockets and fewer empty innings. The probable pitching matchup is Chad Patrick against Kyle Leahy, which sets the game’s early tone.
There is a live counterargument with St. Louis Cardinals, though they likely need sharper bullpen bridge innings to flip this script. Milwaukee Brewers is 3-3 across its last six decisions, a useful form marker for this spot.
Expanded game context
Weather: 77.4°F, Wind 11.8 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 43%, P.O.P. 15% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Home Plate: Emil Jimenez; First Base: Mike Muchlinski; Second Base: Dexter Kelley; Third Base: Gabe Morales
Milwaukee Brewers Injuries: Aaron Ashby (Active), Abner Uribe (Active), Andrew Vaughn (Active), Brandon Lockridge (Active), Brandon Sproat (Active), Brian Fitzpatrick (Active), Brice Turang (Active), Chad Patrick (Active)
St. Louis Cardinals Injuries: Alec Burleson (Active), Andre Pallante (Active), César Prieto (Active), Dustin May (Active), George Soriano (Active), Gordon Graceffo (Active), Iván Herrera (Active), JJ Wetherholt (Active)
Starting Lineups: Both starting lineups were announced at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: Milwaukee Brewers: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 6.2/9 starters on average. In higher-turnover comps (≤6 shared), Milwaukee Brewers went 2-1. St. Louis Cardinals: Compared with last 5 games, today's announced lineup shares 8.4/9 starters on average. in stable-lineup comps (≥8 shared), St. Louis Cardinals went 4-1.
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -115 to -108 (+7), away from the pick side.