Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 6:35 PM ET
Odds+117
Confidence0.178 (data points: 13.349/22.662)
PitchingKai-Wei Teng vs Shane Baz
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles is the pick at +117, with model confidence listed at 0.178 (data points: 13.349/22.662). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Kai-Wei Teng vs Shane Baz. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 117. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 56.2°F, Wind 7.7 mph ESE (in from LF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
Houston Astros Injuries: AJ Blubaugh (Active), Bennett Sousa (Active), Braden Shewmake (Active), Brice Matthews (Active), Bryan Abreu (Active), Bryan King (Active), Cam Smith (Active), Carlos Correa (Active)
Baltimore Orioles Injuries: Adley Rutschman (Active), Andrew Kittredge (Active), Anthony Nunez (Active), Blaze Alexander (Active), Brandon Young (Active), Chris Bassitt (Active), Coby Mayo (Active), Colton Cowser (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at 117.
Underdog 2
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians
PENDING
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 6:10 PM ET
Odds+115
Confidence0.129 (data points: 13.246/23.466)
PitchingNick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee
VenueProgressive Field
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians is the pick at +115, with model confidence listed at 0.129 (data points: 13.246/23.466). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Nick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 115. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 59.6°F, Wind 10.3 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
Tampa Bay Rays Injuries: Ben Williamson (Active), Bryan Baker (Active), Casey Legumina (Active), Cedric Mullins (Active), Chandler Simpson (Active), Cole Sulser (Active), Drew Rasmussen (Active), Griffin Jax (Active)
Cleveland Guardians Injuries: Angel Martínez (Active), Austin Hedges (Active), Bo Naylor (Active), Brayan Rocchio (Active), Cade Smith (Active), Chase DeLauter (Active), Colin Holderman (Active), Connor Brogdon (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at 115.
Underdog 3
San Diego Padres over Chicago Cubs
PENDING
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 9:40 PM ET
Odds+101
Confidence0.076 (data points: 11.976/22.262)
PitchingWalker Buehler vs Edward Cabrera
VenuePetco Park
San Diego Padres over Chicago Cubs is the pick at +101, with model confidence listed at 0.076 (data points: 11.976/22.262). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Walker Buehler vs Edward Cabrera. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 101. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 65.0°F, Wind 8.9 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
San Diego Padres Injuries: Adrian Morejon (Active), Bradgley Rodriguez (Active), Bryce Johnson (Active), David Morgan (Active), Fernando Tatis Jr. (Active), Freddy Fermin (Active), Gavin Sheets (Active), Germán Márquez (Active)
Chicago Cubs Injuries: Alex Bregman (Active), Ben Brown (Active), Carson Kelly (Active), Colin Rea (Active), Corbin Martin (Active), Dansby Swanson (Active), Edward Cabrera (Active), Hoby Milner (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at 101.
Underdog 4
Minnesota Twins over Seattle Mariners
PENDING
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Minnesota Twins over Seattle Mariners is the pick at +110, with model confidence listed at 0.039 (data points: 12.154/23.384999999999998). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Joe Ryan vs Logan Gilbert. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 110. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Minnesota Twins Injuries: Andrew Morris (Active), Anthony Banda (Active), Austin Martin (Active), Bailey Ober (Active), Brooks Lee (Active), Byron Buxton (Active), Cole Sands (Active), Connor Prielipp (Active)
Seattle Mariners Injuries: Alex Hoppe (Active), Andrés Muñoz (Active), Bryan Woo (Active), Cal Raleigh (Active), Cole Wilcox (Active), Cole Young (Active), Connor Joe (Active), Cooper Criswell (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.