Run Total Picks — 2026-04-25

The total recommendation remains OVER 9.25 for New York Yankees vs Houston Astros, with enough normal outcomes pointing the same direction.

For New York Yankees, the over script is strongest when middle-frame run creation stays active. Recent storyline: What should the Yankees do with Spencer Jones?

For Houston Astros at home, the over path is quick answers and fewer dead offensive stretches. Current note on Houston Astros: Astros ponder difficult decision regarding Teng's role.

The best totals stance is still OVER 15.8 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres, with projected pace and leverage innings aligned.

For Arizona Diamondbacks, the over script is strongest when middle-frame run creation stays active. Recent storyline: After starring for Team Mexico, Thomas goes yard in Mexico City Series.

The home side of the over for San Diego Padres is built on timely execution with men on base. Current note on San Diego Padres: Ty France crushes two homers vs. D-backs.

The total stays OVER 8.75 in Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals; the expected run environment still supports that side of the number.

The visitor path for Chicago White Sox in an over game is sustained traffic through the middle frames. Recent storyline: Efficient Schultz proving he belongs in the bigs.

For Washington Nationals, pushing this number over means productive at-bats in separate frames. Current note on Washington Nationals: Four K's in one inning? Nats pitchers have now done it twice.

The total recommendation remains OVER 9.0 for Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers, with enough normal outcomes pointing the same direction.

The visitor path for Cincinnati Reds in an over game is sustained traffic through the middle frames. Recent storyline: Reds rally into first in NL Central with team effort amid Geno's IL stint.

The home side of the over for Detroit Tigers is built on timely execution with men on base. Current note on Detroit Tigers: Tigers' 5-run lead washed away during rainy, frustrating walk-off loss.

The best totals stance is still UNDER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs St. Louis Cardinals, with projected pace and leverage innings aligned.

For Seattle Mariners, this under holds when defensive innings stay short and clean. Recent storyline: Mariners eke out win in back-and-forth slugfest vs. Cards.

At home, the under lane for St. Louis Cardinals is limiting inherited-runner damage. Current note on St. Louis Cardinals: Cards' plan falls apart after five-homer affair.

I’m holding OVER 8.5 for Athletics vs Texas Rangers, because the scoring script still lands on this side more often than not.

For Athletics, the over case starts with turning early baserunners into quick scoring pressure. Recent storyline: A's create franchise history with 3 loud first-inning blasts.

At home, the over lane for Texas Rangers is turning two leverage spots into runs. Current note on Texas Rangers: Gore's gritty 106-pitch outing helps Rangers even series.

OVER 7.79 still holds in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates, because the likely rhythm of scoring has not materially shifted.

For Milwaukee Brewers, this total stays live when two-strike counts are won in scoring spots. Recent storyline: Misiorowski K's Oneil at 102.7 mph, tops Skubal for fastest strikeout pitch by a starter.

For Pittsburgh Pirates, this over gets stronger when response innings arrive before late leverage. Current note on Pittsburgh Pirates: Pregame: OK, so what if the Pirates actually had a bounce house ….

OVER 7.0 remains the preferred total in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians, based on how these lineups and staffs should interact.

For Toronto Blue Jays, over value comes from repeat pressure innings, not just one crooked number. Recent storyline: 3 Blue Jays takeaways: Okamoto stays hot, Varland survives close call in ninth.

For Cleveland Guardians, the over improves when pressure on bridge relievers starts by the fifth or sixth. Current note on Cleveland Guardians: Top 100 prospect Ingle headed to IL after stellar start to season.

I’d play OVER 9.08 again in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers; there’s no meaningful reason to move off the original read.

The away-side over lane for Chicago Cubs is deep counts, free bases, and timely contact. Recent storyline: Cubs' longest winning streak in a decade snapped in rout vs. Dodgers.

The home side of the over for Los Angeles Dodgers is built on timely execution with men on base. Current note on Los Angeles Dodgers: Dodgers' No. 4 prospect has his best game of the year, with 3 extra-base hits.

No pivot on the total: OVER 8.29 remains the cleanest angle in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves at this price point.

On the road, the over lane for Philadelphia Phillies is forcing earlier bullpen decisions. Recent storyline: Finally! Wheeler sharp in return as Phillies end 10-game slide.

For Atlanta Braves, the over improves when pressure on bridge relievers starts by the fifth or sixth. Current note on Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley's 500th career RBI.

No pivot on the total: OVER 8.5 remains the cleanest angle in Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals at this price point.

The visitor path for Los Angeles Angels in an over game is sustained traffic through the middle frames. Recent storyline: Jo Adell's solo home run (4).

For Kansas City Royals, the over improves when pressure on bridge relievers starts by the fifth or sixth. Current note on Kansas City Royals: Royals No. 5 prospect Hammond clobbers homer, extends 7-game hit streak.

OVER 7.5 remains the preferred total in San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins, based on how these lineups and staffs should interact.

For San Francisco Giants, this over improves when first chances are cashed instead of stranded. Recent storyline: Giants 19-year-old prospect adds slam to his outrageous start.

For Miami Marlins, this over gets stronger when response innings arrive before late leverage. Current note on Miami Marlins: Marlins prospects toss first no-no for Beloit Sky Carp since 2017.

The best totals stance is still OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays, with projected pace and leverage innings aligned.

For Minnesota Twins, this over improves when first chances are cashed instead of stranded. Recent storyline: Twins' struggles with RISP continue in 4th straight loss.

For Tampa Bay Rays at home, the over path is quick answers and fewer dead offensive stretches. Current note on Tampa Bay Rays: 'I love pitching here': Vintage McClanahan earns 1st win at Trop since '23.

OVER 7.36 remains the preferred total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox, based on how these lineups and staffs should interact.

For Baltimore Orioles, the over case starts with turning early baserunners into quick scoring pressure. Recent storyline: Rogers struggling to get over 3rd-strike 'hump' in shortest start since '22.

For Boston Red Sox, the over case depends on converting key middle-inning chances. Current note on Boston Red Sox: Red Sox part ways with Cora and 5 members of staff amid rough start to '26.