Los Angeles Dodgers over Miami Marlins is the pick at -297, with model confidence listed at 0.920 (data points: 23.115/24.075999999999997). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs Janson Junk. The model edge comes from run creation quality and run prevention stability, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at -297. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries: Alex Call (Active), Alex Freeland (Active), Alex Vesia (Active), Andy Pages (Active), Blake Treinen (Active), Dalton Rushing (Active), Edgardo Henriquez (Active), Emmet Sheehan (Active)
Miami Marlins Injuries: Agustín Ramírez (Active), Andrew Nardi (Active), Anthony Bender (Active), Calvin Faucher (Active), Chris Paddack (Active), Christopher Morel (Active), Connor Norby (Active), Esteury Ruiz (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at -297.
Pick 2
New York Yankees over Texas Rangers
PENDING
New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 8:05 PM ET
New York Yankees over Texas Rangers is the pick at -122, with model confidence listed at 0.413 (data points: 16.696/23.633000000000003). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Jacob deGrom. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage.
Pre-game context: Moneyline moved from -122 to -120 (+2), away from the pick side. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
New York Yankees Injuries: Aaron Judge (Active), Amed Rosario (Active), Austin Wells (Active), Ben Rice (Active), Brent Headrick (Active), Cam Schlittler (Active), Camilo Doval (Active), Cody Bellinger (Active)
Texas Rangers Injuries: Alejandro Osuna (Active), Andrew McCutchen (Active), Brandon Nimmo (Active), Cal Quantrill (Active), Cole Winn (Active), Corey Seager (Active), Danny Jansen (Active), Evan Carter (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -122 to -120 (+2), away from the pick side.
Pick 3
New York Mets over Washington Nationals
PENDING
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 7:10 PM ET
New York Mets over Washington Nationals is the pick at -186, with model confidence listed at 0.381 (data points: 18.719/27.115000000000002). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Clay Holmes vs Zack Littell. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at -186. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
New York Mets Injuries: Austin Slater (Active), Bo Bichette (Active), Brett Baty (Active), Brooks Raley (Active), Carl Edwards Jr. (Active), Carson Benge (Active), Clay Holmes (Active), Craig Kimbrel (Active)
Washington Nationals Injuries: Andre Granillo (Active), Brad Lord (Active), Brady House (Active), CJ Abrams (Active), Cade Cavalli (Active), Cionel Pérez (Active), Curtis Mead (Active), Daylen Lile (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at -186.
Pick 4
Atlanta Braves over Detroit Tigers
PENDING
Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Odds-122
Confidence0.258 (data points: 14.119/22.442)
PitchingMartín Pérez vs Casey Mize
VenueTruist Park
Atlanta Braves over Detroit Tigers is the pick at -122, with model confidence listed at 0.258 (data points: 14.119/22.442). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Martín Pérez vs Casey Mize. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality and run prevention stability.
Pre-game context: Moneyline moved from -122 to -121 (+1), away from the pick side. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Atlanta Braves Injuries: Aaron Bummer (Active), Austin Riley (Active), Bryce Elder (Active), Carlos Carrasco (Active), Chris Sale (Active), Dominic Smith (Active), Drake Baldwin (Active), Dylan Lee (Active)
Detroit Tigers Injuries: Brant Hurter (Active), Brenan Hanifee (Active), Burch Smith (Active), Casey Mize (Active), Colt Keith (Active), Dillon Dingler (Active), Drew Anderson (Active), Framber Valdez (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline moved from -122 to -121 (+1), away from the pick side.
Pick 5
Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants
PENDING
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Odds-168
Confidence0.251 (data points: 15.036/24.036)
PitchingJesús Luzardo vs Tyler Mahle
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants is the pick at -168, with model confidence listed at 0.251 (data points: 15.036/24.036). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Tyler Mahle. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at -168. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 55.7°F, Wind 8.4 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 56%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
Philadelphia Phillies Injuries: Aaron Nola (Active), Adolis García (Active), Alec Bohm (Active), Andrew Painter (Active), Brad Keller (Active), Brandon Marsh (Active), Bryce Harper (Active), Bryson Stott (Active)
San Francisco Giants Injuries: Adrian Houser (Active), Blade Tidwell (Active), Caleb Kilian (Active), Casey Schmitt (Active), Christian Koss (Active), Drew Gilbert (Active), Eric Haase (Active), Erik Miller (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at -168.
Pick 6
Los Angeles Angels over Chicago White Sox
PENDING
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Los Angeles Angels over Chicago White Sox is the pick at -141, with model confidence listed at 0.230 (data points: 14.365/23.365000000000002). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: José Soriano vs Davis Martin. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at -141. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 60.6°F, Wind 5.0 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 62%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
Los Angeles Angels Injuries: Adam Frazier (Active), Brent Suter (Active), Bryce Teodosio (Active), Chase Silseth (Active), Drew Pomeranz (Active), Jack Kochanowicz (Active), Jo Adell (Active), Joey Lucchesi (Active)
Chicago White Sox Injuries: Andrew Benintendi (Active), Anthony Kay (Active), Austin Hays (Active), Bryan Hudson (Active), Chase Meidroth (Active), Colson Montgomery (Active), Davis Martin (Active), Derek Hill (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at -141.
Pick 7
Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles
PENDING
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 6:35 PM ET
Odds+117
Confidence0.178 (data points: 13.349/22.662)
PitchingKai-Wei Teng vs Shane Baz
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles is the pick at +117, with model confidence listed at 0.178 (data points: 13.349/22.662). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Kai-Wei Teng vs Shane Baz. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 117. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 56.2°F, Wind 7.7 mph ESE (in from LF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
Houston Astros Injuries: AJ Blubaugh (Active), Bennett Sousa (Active), Braden Shewmake (Active), Brice Matthews (Active), Bryan Abreu (Active), Bryan King (Active), Cam Smith (Active), Carlos Correa (Active)
Baltimore Orioles Injuries: Adley Rutschman (Active), Andrew Kittredge (Active), Anthony Nunez (Active), Blaze Alexander (Active), Brandon Young (Active), Chris Bassitt (Active), Coby Mayo (Active), Colton Cowser (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at 117.
Pick 8
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians
PENDING
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 6:10 PM ET
Odds+115
Confidence0.129 (data points: 13.246/23.466)
PitchingNick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee
VenueProgressive Field
Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland Guardians is the pick at +115, with model confidence listed at 0.129 (data points: 13.246/23.466). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Nick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 115. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 59.6°F, Wind 10.3 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
Tampa Bay Rays Injuries: Ben Williamson (Active), Bryan Baker (Active), Casey Legumina (Active), Cedric Mullins (Active), Chandler Simpson (Active), Cole Sulser (Active), Drew Rasmussen (Active), Griffin Jax (Active)
Cleveland Guardians Injuries: Angel Martínez (Active), Austin Hedges (Active), Bo Naylor (Active), Brayan Rocchio (Active), Cade Smith (Active), Chase DeLauter (Active), Colin Holderman (Active), Connor Brogdon (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at 115.
Pick 9
San Diego Padres over Chicago Cubs
PENDING
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 9:40 PM ET
Odds+101
Confidence0.076 (data points: 11.976/22.262)
PitchingWalker Buehler vs Edward Cabrera
VenuePetco Park
San Diego Padres over Chicago Cubs is the pick at +101, with model confidence listed at 0.076 (data points: 11.976/22.262). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Walker Buehler vs Edward Cabrera. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, matchup history leverage, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 101. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: 65.0°F, Wind 8.9 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
San Diego Padres Injuries: Adrian Morejon (Active), Bradgley Rodriguez (Active), Bryce Johnson (Active), David Morgan (Active), Fernando Tatis Jr. (Active), Freddy Fermin (Active), Gavin Sheets (Active), Germán Márquez (Active)
Chicago Cubs Injuries: Alex Bregman (Active), Ben Brown (Active), Carson Kelly (Active), Colin Rea (Active), Corbin Martin (Active), Dansby Swanson (Active), Edward Cabrera (Active), Hoby Milner (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at 101.
Pick 10
Minnesota Twins over Seattle Mariners
PENDING
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 7:40 PM ET
Minnesota Twins over Seattle Mariners is the pick at +110, with model confidence listed at 0.039 (data points: 12.154/23.384999999999998). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Joe Ryan vs Logan Gilbert. The model edge comes from run creation quality, run prevention stability, and matchup history leverage, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality, run prevention stability, and recent form.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at 110. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Minnesota Twins Injuries: Andrew Morris (Active), Anthony Banda (Active), Austin Martin (Active), Bailey Ober (Active), Brooks Lee (Active), Byron Buxton (Active), Cole Sands (Active), Connor Prielipp (Active)
Seattle Mariners Injuries: Alex Hoppe (Active), Andrés Muñoz (Active), Bryan Woo (Active), Cal Raleigh (Active), Cole Wilcox (Active), Cole Young (Active), Connor Joe (Active), Cooper Criswell (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Lineup Change Impact: n/a
Line Movement: Moneyline unchanged at 110.
Pick 11
Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox
PENDING
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox prediction — 2026-04-28 • First pitch: 7:07 PM ET
Odds-117
Confidence0.000 (data points: 7/14)
PitchingTrey Yesavage vs Payton Tolle
VenueRogers Centre
Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox is the pick at -117, with model confidence listed at 0.000 (data points: 7/14). This is a price-to-projection play with a defined matchup script rather than a blind side bet.
Pitching matchup: Trey Yesavage vs Payton Tolle. The model edge comes from run creation quality, matchup history leverage, and recent form, while the opposing profile still shows volatility around run creation quality and matchup history leverage.
Pre-game context: Moneyline unchanged at -117. Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.
Expanded game context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Umpire Crew: Umpire crew unavailable at run time.
Toronto Blue Jays Injuries: Andrés Giménez (Active), Brandon Valenzuela (Active), Braydon Fisher (Active), Chase Lee (Active), Daulton Varsho (Active), Davis Schneider (Active), Dylan Cease (Active), Eloy Jiménez (Active)
Boston Red Sox Injuries: Andruw Monasterio (Active), Aroldis Chapman (Active), Brayan Bello (Active), Caleb Durbin (Active), Carlos Narváez (Active), Ceddanne Rafaela (Active), Connelly Early (Active), Connor Wong (Active)
Starting Lineups: Starting lineups were not announced for either team at publish time.