Run-total lens: OVER 10.17 in Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Noah Cameron vs Griffin Jax
Weather: 92.1°F, Wind 14.4 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.41 to 10.05 (-0.36).
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 8.08
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.08
Odds-111
Confidence0.8
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCristopher Sánchez vs Bubba Chandler
Run-total lens: OVER 8.08 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Bubba Chandler
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 3
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.5
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.77
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLanden Roupp vs Brandon Pfaadt
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Landen Roupp vs Brandon Pfaadt
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.12 to 9.5 (+0.38).
Run Total 4
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 7.0
In Progress
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-102
Confidence0.661
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryan Woo vs José Soriano
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryan Woo vs José Soriano
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 6.5 (-1).
Run Total 5
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres — OVER 11.5
WIN
LeanOVER 11.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.652
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMatthew Boyd vs JP Sears
Run-total lens: OVER 11.5 in Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.3 to 11.64 (+0.34).
Run Total 6
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics — OVER 9.38
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.38
Odds-117
Confidence0.621
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJustin Wrobleski vs Jeffrey Springs
Run-total lens: OVER 9.38 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Justin Wrobleski vs Jeffrey Springs
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.59 to 9.42 (-1.17).
Run Total 7
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.618
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Sproat vs Rhett Lowder
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Sproat vs Rhett Lowder
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.77 to 8.5 (-0.27).
Run Total 8
Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.64
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.64
Odds-106
Confidence0.616
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob deGrom vs Tanner Bibee
Run-total lens: OVER 8.64 in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).
Run Total 9
Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees — OVER 9.93
WIN
LeanOVER 9.93
Odds-113
Confidence0.608
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Cam Schlittler
Run-total lens: OVER 9.93 in Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.36 to 9.86 (+2.5).
Run Total 10
Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.25
WIN
LeanOVER 8.25
Odds-114
Confidence0.379
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJoe Ryan vs Mike Burrows
Run-total lens: OVER 8.25 in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 8.32 (-0.13).
Run Total 11
Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 10.75
In Progress
LeanOVER 10.75
Odds-111
Confidence0.377
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEury Pérez vs Tanner Gordon
Run-total lens: OVER 10.75 in Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Tanner Gordon
Weather: 81.3°F, Wind 6.4 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 24%, P.O.P. 6% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.5 to 10.82 (-0.68).
Run Total 12
Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.86
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.86
Odds-115
Confidence0.314
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupConnelly Early vs Cade Cavalli
Run-total lens: OVER 9.86 in Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Connelly Early vs Cade Cavalli
Weather: 78.8°F, Wind 9.9 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 81%, P.O.P. 28% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.5 to 9.82 (+0.32).
Run Total 13
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-101
Confidence0.232
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMartín Pérez vs Matthew Liberatore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Martín Pérez vs Matthew Liberatore
Weather: 93.1°F, Wind 4.1 mph ESE (in from RF), Humidity 52%, P.O.P. 9% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 14
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.73
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.73
Odds-112
Confidence0.231
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNolan McLean vs Kevin Gausman
Run-total lens: OVER 7.73 in New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nolan McLean vs Kevin Gausman
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.77 to 8.86 (+1.09).
Run Total 15
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 10.45
WIN
LeanOVER 10.45
Odds-110
Confidence0.04
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupErick Fedde vs Trey Gibson
Run-total lens: OVER 10.45 in Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.