Plus Money Picks — 2026-05-31

I’m staying with Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles at +106 because the cleaner nine-inning game script still points in that direction.

From the road perspective, Toronto Blue Jays has the sturdier route: better plate-discipline sequences, fewer empty innings, and enough contact quality to keep pressure on throughout. Over the last five games, Toronto Blue Jays is averaging 4.0 runs scored and 4.4 allowed, which supports this side’s floor. The listed starters are Spencer Miles for Toronto Blue Jays and Kyle Bradish for Baltimore Orioles, which shapes the early run environment.

There is a real path for Baltimore Orioles if they set tempo in the first few frames, yet this pick still trusts Toronto Blue Jays to own the steadier inning-to-inning shape. In that same span, Baltimore Orioles is at 6.4 scored and 4.0 allowed per game, so this is a margin read rather than a blanket fade.

I still like Miami Marlins over New York Mets at +131, especially if this settles into a leverage-inning battle after the fifth.

From the road perspective, Miami Marlins has the sturdier route: better plate-discipline sequences, fewer empty innings, and enough contact quality to keep pressure on throughout. Over the last five games, Miami Marlins is averaging 2.2 runs scored and 7.0 allowed, which supports this side’s floor. The listed starters are John King for Miami Marlins and Nolan McLean for New York Mets, which shapes the early run environment.

There is a real path for New York Mets if they set tempo in the first few frames, yet this pick still trusts Miami Marlins to own the steadier inning-to-inning shape. In that same span, New York Mets is at 6.2 scored and 3.6 allowed per game, so this is a margin read rather than a blanket fade.

Backing Minnesota Twins over Pittsburgh Pirates at +135 is still justified by the steadier path to controlling middle and late innings.

From the road perspective, Minnesota Twins has the sturdier route: better plate-discipline sequences, fewer empty innings, and enough contact quality to keep pressure on throughout. Over the last five games, Minnesota Twins is averaging 4.2 runs scored and 9.2 allowed, which supports this side’s floor. The listed starters are Zebby Matthews for Minnesota Twins and Braxton Ashcraft for Pittsburgh Pirates, which shapes the early run environment.

Pittsburgh Pirates has enough talent to make this uncomfortable, though the recommendation continues to favor Minnesota Twins once bullpen matchups start stacking up. In that same span, Pittsburgh Pirates is at 6.2 scored and 6.8 allowed per game, so this is a margin read rather than a blanket fade.

The pick remains Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals at +104; the matchup profile still favors that side over a full game sample.

The case for Chicago Cubs starts with controllable innings; if they stay even early, their sequencing edge can separate things later. Over the last five games, Chicago Cubs is averaging 5.8 runs scored and 3.6 allowed, which supports this side’s floor.

St. Louis Cardinals is absolutely live at home and can flip this with sharper late leverage execution, but this stance assumes they won’t win those margin plate appearances often enough. In that same span, St. Louis Cardinals is at 2.6 scored and 4.0 allowed per game, so this is a margin read rather than a blanket fade. Recent roster movement for Chicago Cubs includes Ty Blach (signed as free agent), a relevant depth signal.

I’m staying with Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves at +106 because the cleaner nine-inning game script still points in that direction.

Cincinnati Reds fits what this ticket needs from an away club, with multiple ways to create offense without needing one explosive swing. Over the last five games, Cincinnati Reds is averaging 4.0 runs scored and 4.6 allowed, which supports this side’s floor.

Atlanta Braves has enough talent to make this uncomfortable, though the recommendation continues to favor Cincinnati Reds once bullpen matchups start stacking up. In that same span, Atlanta Braves is at 5.4 scored and 4.2 allowed per game, so this is a margin read rather than a blanket fade.