Run-total lens: OVER 8.86 in New York Mets vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 2
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.713
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.59 to 8.0 (-0.59).
Run Total 3
Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.561
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.82 (+1.32).
Run Total 4
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 8.38
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.38
Odds-105
Confidence0.484
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.38 in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).
Run Total 5
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals — UNDER 7.79
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.79
Odds-113
Confidence0.425
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.79 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 7.77 (-0.37).
Run Total 6
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.404
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 8
Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 10.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.355
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 50.1°F, Wind 5.7 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 60%, P.O.P. 34% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 10.5.
Run Total 9
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers — OVER 6.43
WIN
LeanOVER 6.43
Odds-110
Confidence0.351
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 6.43 in Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: 72.5°F, Wind 15.0 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 68%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 6.5 (-1.55).
Run Total 10
Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics — OVER 9.39
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.39
Odds-106
Confidence0.317
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.39 in Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.36 (+0.36).
Run Total 11
Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros — UNDER 8.06
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.06
Odds-111
Confidence0.181
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.06 in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 12
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-100
Confidence0.173
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 7.5 (-0.82).
Run Total 13
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — UNDER 7.17
In Progress
LeanUNDER 7.17
Odds-105
Confidence0.171
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.17 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 71.4°F, Wind 7.4 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.3 (-1.2).
Run Total 14
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-110
Confidence0.168
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Weather: 55.2°F, Wind 5.9 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.0.
Run Total 15
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.9
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.9
Odds-108
Confidence0.005
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.64 to 8.82 (+0.18).