Run-total lens: OVER 10.45 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft vs Aaron Civale
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.05 to 15.06 (+5.01).
Run Total 2
New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 9.43
WIN
LeanOVER 9.43
Odds-105
Confidence0.862
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCarlos Rodón vs Anthony Kay
Run-total lens: OVER 9.43 in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodón vs Anthony Kay
Weather: 72.5°F, Wind 9.9 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 69%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.45 (+0.95).
Run Total 3
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 10.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.654
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 1:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Littell vs Luinder Avila
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Littell vs Luinder Avila
Weather: 85.9°F, Wind 7.2 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 38%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.52
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBraydon Fisher vs Jake Bennett
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.5 (-1).
Run Total 5
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 10.45
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.45
Odds-111
Confidence0.518
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBradgley Rodriguez vs Kyle Leahy
Run-total lens: OVER 10.45 in San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bradgley Rodriguez vs Kyle Leahy
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 8.29
WIN
LeanOVER 8.29
Odds-104
Confidence0.39
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCarson Whisenhunt vs JR Ritchie
Run-total lens: OVER 8.29 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Carson Whisenhunt vs JR Ritchie
Weather: 81.7°F, Wind 7.6 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.05 to 8.18 (-0.87).
Run Total 7
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 9.45
WIN
LeanOVER 9.45
Odds-105
Confidence0.378
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 1:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSandy Alcantara vs Andrew Painter
Run-total lens: OVER 9.45 in Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sandy Alcantara vs Andrew Painter
Weather: 81.9°F, Wind 6.5 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 52%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-104
Confidence0.34
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 12:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Lodolo vs Nolan McLean
Weather: 75.7°F, Wind 8.6 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.21
WIN
LeanOVER 8.21
Odds-106
Confidence0.321
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 2:00 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGrant Holmes vs Adrian Houser
Run-total lens: OVER 8.21 in Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Grant Holmes vs Adrian Houser
Weather: 81.7°F, Wind 7.6 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.05 to 8.18 (-0.87).
Run Total 10
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.254
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGavin Williams vs Brandon Sproat
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams vs Brandon Sproat
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.64 to 7.5 (-0.14).
Run Total 11
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.05
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-114
Confidence0.206
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 3:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSam Aldegheri vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sam Aldegheri vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.202
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCasey Mize vs Peter Lambert
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Casey Mize vs Peter Lambert
Weather: 85.2°F, Wind 12.5 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 13% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 13
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.32
WIN
LeanOVER 7.32
Odds-105
Confidence0.172
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 3:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShohei Ohtani vs Shane McClanahan
Run-total lens: OVER 7.32 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs Shane McClanahan
Run-total lens: UNDER 10.0 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Sullivan vs Javier Assad
Weather: 66.0°F, Wind 9.9 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 89%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 15
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners — UNDER 7.9
In Progress
LeanUNDER 7.9
Odds-109
Confidence0.029
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Bradish vs George Kirby
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Bradish vs George Kirby
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.91 (+0.41).