Run-total lens: OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 12.0 to 12.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 2
Athletics vs Washington Nationals — OVER 10.5
In Progress
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.825
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGage Jump vs Cade Cavalli
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Athletics vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.0 to 10.56 (+0.56).
Run Total 3
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.5
In Progress
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.672
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGavin Williams vs Jared Jones
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.67 (+0.17).
Run Total 4
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 10.0
WIN
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-110
Confidence0.527
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Seth Lugo
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.18 to 10.5 (+0.32).
Run Total 5
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.502
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael McGreevy vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Merrill Kelly
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.07 to 9.0 (-0.07).
Run Total 6
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-110
Confidence0.492
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChris Sale vs Cal Quantrill
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.14 to 9.0 (+0.86).
Run Total 7
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 8.95
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.95
Odds-107
Confidence0.469
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJake Bennett vs Griffin Jax
Run-total lens: OVER 8.95 in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jake Bennett vs Griffin Jax
Weather: 80.9°F, Wind 12.6 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 35%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.5 (+1).
Run Total 8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees — OVER 8.62
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.62
Odds-111
Confidence0.458
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRoki Sasaki vs Gerrit Cole
Run-total lens: OVER 8.62 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.05 to 8.55 (-0.5).
Run Total 9
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.404
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEduardo Rivera vs Mason Englert
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rivera vs Mason Englert
Weather: 80.9°F, Wind 12.6 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 35%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.5 (+1).
Run Total 10
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.06
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.06
Odds-112
Confidence0.377
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTroy Melton vs Reid Detmers
Run-total lens: OVER 8.06 in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors under, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.09 to 8.06 (-0.03).
Run Total 11
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.345
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBailey Ober vs Colin Rea
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 9.0 (-1.5).
Run Total 12
Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins — OVER 7.89
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.89
Odds-115
Confidence0.264
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Henderson vs Sandy Alcantara
Run-total lens: OVER 7.89 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Henderson vs Sandy Alcantara
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.95 (-0.05).
Run Total 13
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 6.78
In Progress
LeanUNDER 6.78
Odds-111
Confidence0.228
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Miller vs Landen Roupp
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.78 in Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller vs Landen Roupp
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.0 to 6.78 (-0.22).
Run Total 14
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 8.55
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.55
Odds-119
Confidence0.15
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPeter Lambert vs Dean Kremer
Run-total lens: OVER 8.55 in Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 8.55 (+0.05).
Run Total 15
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.071
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSpencer Miles vs Anthony Kay
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Spencer Miles vs Anthony Kay
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.