Run-total lens: OVER 8.68 in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — OVER 8.05
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.05
Odds-113
Confidence0.707
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 7:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs David Peterson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.05 in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.702
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 3:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJose Cabrera vs Mike Paredes
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jose Cabrera vs Mike Paredes
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.674
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDustin May vs Stephen Kolek
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.41
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.41
Odds-104
Confidence0.532
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Andrew Alvarez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.41 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Andrew Alvarez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.5
WIN
LeanOVER 11.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.379
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 3:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJared Jones vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 11.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jared Jones vs Michael Lorenzen
Weather: 90.0°F, Wind 14.4 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 15%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.369
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 2:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNathan Eovaldi vs Wandy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs Wandy Peralta
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — UNDER 6.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 6.5
Odds+103
Confidence0.349
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Gilbert vs Payton Tolle
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs Payton Tolle
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.271
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKeider Montero vs Davis Martin
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Keider Montero vs Davis Martin
Weather: 72.4°F, Wind 4.5 mph S (in from CF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 10
San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins — OVER 8.18
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.18
Odds-112
Confidence0.206
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Webb vs Ryan Gusto
Run-total lens: OVER 8.18 in San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb vs Ryan Gusto
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.2
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKai-Wei Teng vs Slade Cecconi
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.177
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEmmet Sheehan vs Brandon Young
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 8.95 in Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Elder vs Robert Gasser
Weather: 79.7°F, Wind 5.3 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 4% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 14
Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics — UNDER 9.05
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.05
Odds-103
Confidence0.025
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.05 in Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.