Run-total lens: OVER 8.07 in Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.41 to 8.36 (-1.05).
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.696
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).
Run Total 3
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-119
Confidence0.641
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: 61.5°F, Wind 5.5 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 15% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.23 (+0.73).
Run Total 4
New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-120
Confidence0.616
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 8.5 (+0.05).
Run Total 5
Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-114
Confidence0.508
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.23 to 8.5 (+0.27).
Run Total 6
New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.507
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.05 to 7.5 (+0.45).
Run Total 7
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 7.57
WIN
LeanOVER 7.57
Odds-119
Confidence0.44
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.57 in Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: 53.8°F, Wind 8.4 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 84%, P.O.P. 27% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.68 (+0.18).
Run Total 8
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.56
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.56
Odds-119
Confidence0.401
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.56 in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.05 to 8.59 (+0.54).
Run Total 9
Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.344
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: 55.9°F, Wind 6.9 mph E (in from RF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.77 to 9.0 (+1.23).
Run Total 10
Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 7.25
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.25
Odds-116
Confidence0.318
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 10:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.25 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 12
Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.201
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 13
Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.79
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.79
Odds-118
Confidence0.156
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.79 in Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.86 (+0.36).
Run Total 14
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.069
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: 68.1°F, Wind 5.8 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 78%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.59 to 8.0 (+0.41).
Run Total 15
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.04
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.