Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence1.028
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBraxton Ashcraft vs Aaron Nola
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, run context favors over.
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Casey Mize vs Ryan Weathers
Weather: 84.6°F, Wind 8.0 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 47%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.7 to 7.45 (-0.25).
Run Total 3
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 9.0
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-110
Confidence0.757
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEduardo Rodriguez vs Tyler Mahle
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tyler Mahle
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.7 to 7.44 (-1.26).
Run Total 4
Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.4
WIN
LeanOVER 11.4
Odds-104
Confidence0.742
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSandy Alcantara vs Sean Sullivan
Run-total lens: OVER 11.4 in Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sandy Alcantara vs Sean Sullivan
Weather: 86.1°F, Wind 14.6 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 14%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.15 to 11.5 (+0.35).
Run Total 5
Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 10.5
In Progress
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.674
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGage Jump vs Eric Lauer
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Athletics vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gage Jump vs Eric Lauer
Weather: 87.1°F, Wind 7.9 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 25%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 10.5.
Run Total 6
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 7.5
In Progress
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-119
Confidence0.632
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGeorge Kirby vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: George Kirby vs Ryan Johnson
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.65 to 7.5 (-0.15).
Run Total 7
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres — OVER 11.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 11.5
Odds-100
Confidence0.564
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShota Imanaga vs Griffin Canning
Run-total lens: OVER 11.5 in Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Griffin Canning
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.8 to 11.5 (-0.3).
Run Total 8
Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 10.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.522
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Burke vs Shane Baz
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Burke vs Shane Baz
Weather: 88.8°F, Wind 6.0 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 42%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 10.5 (+1.5).
Run Total 9
Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.484
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Alexander vs Parker Messick
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Alexander vs Parker Messick
Weather: 87.2°F, Wind 5.1 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 63%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.65 to 7.5 (-0.15).
Run Total 10
Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.437
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRanger Suarez vs Miles Mikolas
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez vs Miles Mikolas
Weather: 73.8°F, Wind 4.3 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 60%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.5 (+1).
Run Total 11
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.43
WIN
LeanOVER 8.43
Odds-103
Confidence0.346
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPeter Lambert vs Zebby Matthews
Run-total lens: OVER 8.43 in Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Peter Lambert vs Zebby Matthews
Weather: 87.0°F, Wind 10.3 mph SE (out to CF), Humidity 72%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.95 to 8.45 (-0.5).
Run Total 12
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.71
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.71
Odds-117
Confidence0.161
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Manaea vs Trey Yesavage
Run-total lens: OVER 7.71 in New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea vs Trey Yesavage
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 7.77 (-0.68).
Run Total 13
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 8.64
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.64
Odds-105
Confidence0.127
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobert Gasser vs Nick Lodolo
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.64 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Robert Gasser vs Nick Lodolo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.6 to 8.82 (+0.22).