Run-total lens: OVER 9.95 in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 9.91
WIN
LeanOVER 9.91
Odds-113
Confidence0.878
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Manaea vs Aaron Nola
Run-total lens: OVER 9.91 in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.94 to 10.0 (+0.06).
Run Total 4
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.521
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSonny Gray vs Trey Yesavage
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 9.07
WIN
LeanOVER 9.07
Odds-106
Confidence0.506
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNoah Cameron vs Matthew Liberatore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.07 in Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Noah Cameron vs Matthew Liberatore
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.77 to 9.0 (+0.23).
Run Total 6
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-103
Confidence0.355
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Parker Messick
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Drohan vs Parker Messick
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners — UNDER 7.59
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.59
Odds-107
Confidence0.333
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Baz vs Bryan Woo
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.59 in Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz vs Bryan Woo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.322
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 2:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJoe Ryan vs Jack Leiter
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan vs Jack Leiter
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.