Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 9.7
WIN
LeanOVER 9.7
Odds-110
Confidence1.004
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCade Cavalli vs Luis Castillo
Run-total lens: OVER 9.7 in Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cade Cavalli vs Luis Castillo
Weather: 89.5°F, Wind 8.1 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 33%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.82 (+0.82).
Run Total 2
Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-118
Confidence0.844
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNoah Cameron vs Mike Burrows
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Noah Cameron vs Mike Burrows
Weather: 84.4°F, Wind 11.0 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 66%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.45 to 8.5 (-0.95).
Run Total 3
Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 9.36
WIN
LeanOVER 9.36
Odds-105
Confidence0.755
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupConnor Prielipp vs Matthew Liberatore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.36 in Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Connor Prielipp vs Matthew Liberatore
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.91 to 8.68 (-0.23).
Run Total 4
Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 9.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.716
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob deGrom vs Ranger Suarez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom vs Ranger Suarez
Weather: 89.2°F, Wind 9.0 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 33%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.91 to 9.0 (+1.09).
Run Total 5
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.6
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.6
Odds-113
Confidence0.635
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRhett Lowder vs Michael Soroka
Run-total lens: OVER 9.6 in Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Rhett Lowder vs Michael Soroka
Weather: 85.4°F, Wind 7.6 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 45%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.05 to 9.41 (+0.36).
Run Total 6
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-101
Confidence0.483
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBubba Chandler vs Lake Bachar
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 7.5 (-1.5).
Run Total 7
San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.459
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRandy Vásquez vs Trey Gibson
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Randy Vásquez vs Trey Gibson
Weather: 90.0°F, Wind 2.5 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 36%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.82 to 9.64 (-0.18).
Run Total 8
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.457
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Manaea vs Martín Pérez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea vs Martín Pérez
Weather: 88.7°F, Wind 9.0 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 35%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.33 to 8.5 (+0.17).
Run Total 9
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.4
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.4
Odds-106
Confidence0.456
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 3:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Kevin Gausman
Run-total lens: OVER 8.4 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Kevin Gausman
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).
Run Total 10
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 9.9
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.9
Odds-105
Confidence0.449
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupYoshinobu Yamamoto vs Sean Burke
Run-total lens: OVER 9.9 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Sean Burke
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.14 to 9.91 (+1.77).
Run Total 11
Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 7.12
WIN
LeanOVER 7.12
Odds-105
Confidence0.395
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Aaron Nola
Run-total lens: OVER 7.12 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Drohan vs Aaron Nola
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.0 (-1).
Run Total 12
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.314
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 10:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBen Brown vs Trevor McDonald
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.86 to 8.05 (+0.19).
Run Total 13
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.275
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.95 to 7.5 (-0.45).
Run Total 14
Colorado Rockies vs Athletics — OVER 13.95
LOSS
LeanOVER 13.95
Odds-106
Confidence0.178
VenueLas Vegas Ballpark
Game InfoStart: 10:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Freeland vs Joey Estes
Run-total lens: OVER 13.95 in Colorado Rockies vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.14 in Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under.