Run-total lens: OVER 8.36 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 82.7°F, Wind 3.1 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 43%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.18 to 7.5 (-0.68).
Run Total 2
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.457
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 5:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: 63.1°F, Wind 13.9 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 3
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-103
Confidence0.378
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.23 to 9.5 (-0.73).
Run Total 5
Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins — OVER 7.45
WIN
LeanOVER 7.45
Odds-102
Confidence0.324
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.45 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 6
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 8.09
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.09
Odds-115
Confidence0.297
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.09 in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, market moved total up, run context favors under, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 72.0°F, Wind 3.6 mph N (out to RF), Humidity 85%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.05 (+0.05).
Run Total 7
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals — UNDER 8.64
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.64
Odds-104
Confidence0.287
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 3:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.64 in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.68 (-0.32).
Run Total 8
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros — UNDER 8.25
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.25
Odds-110
Confidence0.262
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.25 in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 8.32 (-0.13).
Run Total 9
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.92
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.92
Odds-109
Confidence0.26
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.92 in Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 68.7°F, Wind 8.6 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.68 (+0.18).
Run Total 10
Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals — OVER 7.92
WIN
LeanOVER 7.92
Odds-111
Confidence0.256
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.92 in Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 64.2°F, Wind 6.3 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 7.73 (-0.32).
Run Total 11
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.255
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 12
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 8.94
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.94
Odds-105
Confidence0.208
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.94 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.91 to 8.95 (+0.04).
Run Total 13
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 7.55
WIN
LeanOVER 7.55
Odds-114
Confidence0.18
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.55 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.