Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.32 to 8.5 (+0.18).
Run Total 2
Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 10.1
WIN
LeanOVER 10.1
Odds-116
Confidence0.682
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 10.1 in Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 84.9°F, Wind 10.4 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 33%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.95 to 10.14 (+0.19).
Run Total 3
Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.68
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 7.94 (-0.51).
Run Total 4
Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.499
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.09 to 7.5 (+0.41).
Run Total 5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.25
WIN
LeanOVER 9.25
Odds-109
Confidence0.465
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.25 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.32 (+0.82).
Run Total 6
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.32
LOSS
LeanOVER 11.32
Odds-109
Confidence0.399
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 3:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 11.32 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 78.6°F, Wind 7.2 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 21%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.41 to 10.55 (-0.86).
Run Total 7
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.0
Odds-116
Confidence0.375
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 69.3°F, Wind 12.0 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 28% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.0 (-1).
Run Total 8
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.335
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.18 to 8.5 (+0.32).
Run Total 9
Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 7.4
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.4
Odds-113
Confidence0.297
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.4 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.41 (-0.09).
Run Total 10
San Francisco Giants vs Athletics — UNDER 9.61
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.61
Odds-108
Confidence0.29
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.61 in San Francisco Giants vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, market moved total down, savant contact quality leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 80.2°F, Wind 11.6 mph NNW (in from RF), Humidity 18%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.73 to 9.64 (-0.09).
Run Total 11
Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.186
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 82.5°F, Wind 1.4 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 31%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.95 to 8.67 (+0.72).
Run Total 12
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros — UNDER 7.55
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.55
Odds-105
Confidence0.171
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.55 in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.77 to 8.45 (+0.68).
Run Total 13
Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.45
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.45
Odds-103
Confidence0.088
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.45 in Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: 63.1°F, Wind 9.3 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.41 to 8.0 (-0.41).
Run Total 14
New York Mets vs New York Yankees — UNDER 8.07
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.07
Odds-108
Confidence0.041
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.07 in New York Mets vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.23 (-0.27).
Run Total 15
St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals — UNDER 9.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.025
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 76.3°F, Wind 7.1 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 62% (Open-Meteo fallback)