Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.73 to 9.5 (+0.77).
Run Total 2
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 8.31
WIN
LeanOVER 8.31
Odds-106
Confidence0.769
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNolan McLean vs Spencer Strider
Run-total lens: OVER 8.31 in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nolan McLean vs Spencer Strider
Weather: 84.4°F, Wind 18.3 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 63%, P.O.P. 24% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.09 to 8.29 (+0.2).
Run Total 3
Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.62
WIN
LeanOVER 8.62
Odds-111
Confidence0.734
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJoe Ryan vs Kyle Leahy
Run-total lens: OVER 8.62 in Minnesota Twins vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan vs Kyle Leahy
Weather: 80.0°F, Wind 10.2 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 33%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 8.73 (+0.23).
Run Total 4
Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.14
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.14
Odds-109
Confidence0.722
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Tanner Banks
Run-total lens: OVER 8.14 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Tanner Banks
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.68 to 8.0 (+0.32).
Run Total 5
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.44
WIN
LeanOVER 9.44
Odds-106
Confidence0.63
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTatsuya Imai vs Luinder Avila
Run-total lens: OVER 9.44 in Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.05 to 9.36 (+0.31).
Run Total 6
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-118
Confidence0.623
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBraxton Ashcraft vs Sandy Alcantara
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft vs Sandy Alcantara
Weather: 79.2°F, Wind 7.8 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 7
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.06
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.06
Odds-109
Confidence0.517
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEduardo Rodriguez vs Nick Lodolo
Run-total lens: OVER 9.06 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Nick Lodolo
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 8
Athletics vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 13.64
LOSS
LeanOVER 13.64
Odds-114
Confidence0.469
VenueLas Vegas Ballpark
Game InfoStart: 10:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGage Jump vs Sean Sullivan
Run-total lens: OVER 13.64 in Athletics vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 13.56 to 13.95 (+0.39).
Run Total 9
Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.69
WIN
LeanOVER 8.69
Odds-113
Confidence0.409
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Miller vs Zack Littell
Run-total lens: OVER 8.69 in Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller vs Zack Littell
Weather: 84.3°F, Wind 4.0 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 40% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.32 to 8.95 (-0.37).
Run Total 10
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.19
WIN
LeanOVER 8.19
Odds-110
Confidence0.358
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRoki Sasaki vs Anthony Kay
Run-total lens: OVER 8.19 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Roki Sasaki vs Anthony Kay
Weather: 80.6°F, Wind 13.1 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 39%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.95 to 8.14 (-0.81).
Run Total 11
Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers — OVER 7.94
WIN
LeanOVER 7.94
Odds-105
Confidence0.335
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSonny Gray vs Jack Leiter
Run-total lens: OVER 7.94 in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.36 to 8.0 (-0.36).
Run Total 12
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.32
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane McClanahan vs Sam Aldegheri
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane McClanahan vs Sam Aldegheri
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 13
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers — UNDER 7.94
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.94
Odds-109
Confidence0.225
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTanner Bibee vs Jack Flaherty
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.94 in Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee vs Jack Flaherty
Weather: 76.5°F, Wind 7.4 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 54%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.95 (-0.55).
Run Total 14
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs — UNDER 7.71
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.71
Odds-106
Confidence0.108
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 10:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLanden Roupp vs Javier Assad
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.71 in San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Landen Roupp vs Javier Assad
Weather: 61.6°F, Wind 12.5 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.95 to 7.9 (-0.05).
Run Total 15
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.045
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:37 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrey Yesavage vs Ryan Weathers
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trey Yesavage vs Ryan Weathers
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.5 (-0.5).