Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 69.0°F, Wind 6.3 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 20%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.95 to 9.67 (-0.28).
Run Total 2
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.631
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Expanded total context
Weather: 59.8°F, Wind 11.5 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).
Run Total 3
Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.614
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 4
Philadelphia Phillies vs Athletics — OVER 8.17
WIN
LeanOVER 8.17
Odds-115
Confidence0.586
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.17 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.65 to 8.5 (-0.15).
Run Total 5
Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 8.36
WIN
LeanOVER 8.36
Odds-107
Confidence0.534
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.36 in Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, cool run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Expanded total context
Weather: 56.8°F, Wind 10.6 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 56%, P.O.P. 32% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 8.0 (-0.14).
Run Total 6
Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees — OVER 8.17
WIN
LeanOVER 8.17
Odds-118
Confidence0.513
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.17 in Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Weather: 74.8°F, Wind 13.2 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 39%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.25 to 8.5 (+0.25).
Run Total 7
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.493
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.0 (-1).
Run Total 8
Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 8.07
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.07
Odds-114
Confidence0.471
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.07 in Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.95 to 8.18 (+0.23).
Run Total 9
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.67
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.67
Odds-118
Confidence0.466
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.67 in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 77.1°F, Wind 9.0 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.36 to 8.77 (+0.41).
Run Total 10
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.83
WIN
LeanOVER 7.83
Odds-106
Confidence0.39
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.83 in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Weather: 51.6°F, Wind 0.7 mph NNW (in from RF), Humidity 84%, P.O.P. 12% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.86.
Run Total 11
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-115
Confidence0.279
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.18 to 7.59 (+0.41).
Run Total 12
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds+101
Confidence0.249
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans under.
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 14
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.085
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.