Run-total lens: OVER 9.25 in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Chase Burns vs Tobias Myers
Weather: 73.7°F, Wind 4.8 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 40%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.05 to 9.5 (+1.45).
Run Total 2
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics — OVER 10.5
WIN
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.58
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJared Jones vs J.T. Ginn
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — OVER 8.07
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.07
Odds-104
Confidence0.473
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs Ryan Gusto
Run-total lens: OVER 8.07 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs Ryan Gusto
Weather: 77.0°F, Wind 10.9 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 42%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.05 (+0.55).
Run Total 4
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 9.75
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.75
Odds-117
Confidence0.453
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Lorenzen vs Shota Imanaga
Run-total lens: OVER 9.75 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Lorenzen vs Shota Imanaga
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.19 to 9.5 (+0.31).
Run Total 5
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.36
WIN
LeanOVER 8.36
Odds-116
Confidence0.386
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndrew Alvarez vs Mitch Spence
Run-total lens: OVER 8.36 in Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 6
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.07
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.07
Odds-104
Confidence0.381
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDustin May vs Wandy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 8.07 in St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 7
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.374
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEric Lauer vs Nick Martinez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.45 (-0.55).
Run Total 8
Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.43
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.43
Odds-102
Confidence0.197
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMacKenzie Gore vs Mike Paredes
Run-total lens: OVER 8.43 in Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: MacKenzie Gore vs Mike Paredes
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.41 (+0.41).
Run Total 9
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-101
Confidence0.072
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWalbert Ureña vs Ryne Nelson
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Walbert Ureña vs Ryne Nelson
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 10
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — OVER 7.71
WIN
LeanOVER 7.71
Odds-107
Confidence0.018
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Anderson vs Kai-Wei Teng
Run-total lens: OVER 7.71 in Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Anderson vs Kai-Wei Teng
Weather: 79.4°F, Wind 1.7 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 96%, P.O.P. 26% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 7.55 (-0.9).