New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-108
Confidence1.191
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs PJ Poulin
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs PJ Poulin
Weather: 87.8°F, Wind 4.6 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 49%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.86 to 9.22 (+0.36).
Run Total 2
Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 7.55
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.55
Odds-102
Confidence0.657
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEury Pérez vs Tanner Bibee
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.55 in Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Tanner Bibee
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.59 to 8.15 (+0.56).
Run Total 3
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.73
WIN
LeanOVER 8.73
Odds-112
Confidence0.578
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPeter Lambert vs Kumar Rocker
Run-total lens: OVER 8.73 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Peter Lambert vs Kumar Rocker
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 8.5 (+0.05).
Run Total 4
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — OVER 7.73
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.73
Odds-110
Confidence0.555
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEduardo Rivera vs Freddy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 7.73 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rivera vs Freddy Peralta
Weather: 83.4°F, Wind 7.6 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 55%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.39 (-0.11).
Run Total 5
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.516
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJoe Ryan vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan vs Ryan Johnson
Weather: 86.3°F, Wind 7.6 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 62%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.6 (-0.4).
Run Total 6
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.64
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.64
Odds-115
Confidence0.461
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Gilbert vs Griffin Jax
Run-total lens: OVER 7.64 in Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs Griffin Jax
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.6 (+0.1).
Run Total 7
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — UNDER 6.57
WIN
LeanUNDER 6.57
Odds-106
Confidence0.289
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 12:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBraxton Ashcraft vs Brandon Sproat
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.57 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft vs Brandon Sproat
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.38 to 7.5 (-0.88).
Run Total 8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.286
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupYoshinobu Yamamoto vs Brandon Pfaadt
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Brandon Pfaadt
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 9
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies — UNDER 7.33
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.33
Odds-114
Confidence0.285
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCasey Mize vs Cristopher Sánchez
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.33 in Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Casey Mize vs Cristopher Sánchez
Weather: 83.4°F, Wind 6.7 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 52%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.4 (-0.1).
Run Total 10
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — UNDER 6.57
WIN
LeanUNDER 6.57
Odds-106
Confidence0.262
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Bubba Chandler
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.57 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.38 to 7.5 (-0.88).
Run Total 11
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 9.38
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.38
Odds-111
Confidence0.253
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJavier Assad vs Nick Lodolo
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.38 in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Javier Assad vs Nick Lodolo
Weather: 75.6°F, Wind 3.2 mph NE (in from RF), Humidity 92%, P.O.P. 16% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.0 to 9.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 12
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres — UNDER 8.12
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.12
Odds-105
Confidence0.23
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrey Yesavage vs Walker Buehler
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.12 in Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.86 to 8.3 (+0.44).
Run Total 13
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.225
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReynaldo López vs Matthew Liberatore
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Reynaldo López vs Matthew Liberatore
Weather: 77.9°F, Wind 6.5 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 92%, P.O.P. 19% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 8.5 (+0.05).
Run Total 14
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-118
Confidence0.151
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGage Jump vs Bryan Hudson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Athletics vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gage Jump vs Bryan Hudson
Weather: 75.0°F, Wind 11.1 mph NNE (out to RF), Humidity 98%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 15
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.079
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Mahle vs Kyle Freeland
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Mahle vs Kyle Freeland
Weather: 67.1°F, Wind 10.4 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 16
Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.076
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Bradish vs Noah Cameron
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Bradish vs Noah Cameron
Weather: 80.5°F, Wind 16.2 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 29% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.5 (+0.5).