Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.33 (+0.83).
Run Total 2
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.831
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZebby Matthews vs Grayson Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zebby Matthews vs Grayson Rodriguez
Weather: 87.8°F, Wind 1.1 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 44%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 3
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.88
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.88
Odds-104
Confidence0.797
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChris Sale vs Kyle Leahy
Run-total lens: OVER 8.88 in Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.77 to 8.77 (+1).
Run Total 4
Chicago White Sox vs Athletics — OVER 9.21
WIN
LeanOVER 9.21
Odds-107
Confidence0.648
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Burke vs Jacob Lopez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.21 in Chicago White Sox vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Burke vs Jacob Lopez
Weather: 73.7°F, Wind 13.6 mph N (out to RF), Humidity 85%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.95 to 9.0 (+0.05).
Run Total 5
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.42
WIN
LeanOVER 8.42
Odds-105
Confidence0.462
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Brown vs Cal Quantrill
Run-total lens: OVER 8.42 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown vs Cal Quantrill
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.95 to 8.45 (+0.5).
Run Total 6
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.79
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.79
Odds-116
Confidence0.405
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Weathers vs Carson Palmquist
Run-total lens: OVER 8.79 in New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors under, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs Carson Palmquist
Weather: 83.8°F, Wind 1.1 mph NE (in from CF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 25% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.77 to 8.86 (-0.91).
Run Total 7
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.81
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.81
Odds-113
Confidence0.356
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Hurt vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.81 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 8
Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.71
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.71
Odds-113
Confidence0.312
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSandy Alcantara vs Parker Messick
Run-total lens: OVER 7.71 in Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sandy Alcantara vs Parker Messick
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.64 (+0.14).
Run Total 9
Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.264
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Luinder Avila
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.64 to 9.0 (-0.64).
Run Total 10
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 10.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.228
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Hunter Greene
Weather: 82.5°F, Wind 5.8 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.5 to 10.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 11
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — UNDER 8.5
In Progress
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-114
Confidence0.2
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 10:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobbie Ray vs Tanner Gordon
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Robbie Ray vs Tanner Gordon
Weather: 59.9°F, Wind 13.6 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 12
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.199
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Luis Castillo
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Luis Castillo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.86 to 7.5 (-0.36).
Run Total 13
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies — UNDER 7.08
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.08
Odds-105
Confidence0.195
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJack Flaherty vs Aaron Nola
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.08 in Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty vs Aaron Nola
Weather: 81.9°F, Wind 5.9 mph NE (out to RF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 6% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.77 to 7.14 (-1.63).
Run Total 14
San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.89
In Progress
LeanOVER 7.89
Odds-108
Confidence0.169
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJP Sears vs Shane Bieber
Run-total lens: OVER 7.89 in San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.