San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 12.0
WIN
LeanOVER 12.0
Odds-105
Confidence1.253
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Webb vs Ryan Feltner
Run-total lens: OVER 12.0 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb vs Ryan Feltner
Weather: 89.2°F, Wind 11.9 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 12%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.0 to 11.57 (+0.57).
Run Total 2
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-120
Confidence0.893
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShohei Ohtani vs Michael King
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.55 (+0.55).
Run Total 3
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.861
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Harrison vs Jose Cabrera
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison vs Jose Cabrera
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 4
Athletics vs Miami Marlins — OVER 10.64
WIN
LeanOVER 10.64
Odds-118
Confidence0.769
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJack Perkins vs Tyler Phillips
Run-total lens: OVER 10.64 in Athletics vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.5 to 10.82 (+0.32).
Run Total 5
New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 9.73
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.73
Odds-113
Confidence0.684
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGerrit Cole vs Mike Paredes
Run-total lens: OVER 9.73 in New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs Mike Paredes
Weather: 95.2°F, Wind 11.9 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 43%, P.O.P. 40% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.59 to 9.88 (+0.29).
Run Total 6
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.71
WIN
LeanOVER 9.71
Odds-106
Confidence0.64
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMitch Keller vs Foster Griffin
Run-total lens: OVER 9.71 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.5 to 9.64 (+0.14).
Run Total 7
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.519
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDylan Cease vs Luis Castillo
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Luis Castillo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.05 to 7.5 (+0.45).
Run Total 8
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 7.58
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.58
Odds-110
Confidence0.348
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGavin Williams vs Anthony Kay
Run-total lens: OVER 7.58 in Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams vs Anthony Kay
Weather: 89.1°F, Wind 6.4 mph NNW (in from CF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 4% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.36 to 7.55 (-0.81).
Run Total 9
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.337
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavid Peterson vs Andre Pallante
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: David Peterson vs Andre Pallante
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 8.35 (-2.15).
Run Total 10
Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.326
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Jake Bennett
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.05 to 8.5 (+0.45).
Run Total 11
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.08
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.08
Odds-113
Confidence0.315
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor Rogers vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.08 in Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.73 to 9.14 (-0.59).
Run Total 12
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 7.83
WIN
LeanOVER 7.83
Odds-113
Confidence0.25
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChristian Scott vs Grant Holmes
Run-total lens: OVER 7.83 in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.41 to 8.09 (-1.32).
Run Total 13
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-102
Confidence0.228
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Spencer Arrighetti
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Spencer Arrighetti
Weather: 88.9°F, Wind 3.8 mph SE (out to CF), Humidity 60%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 7.36 (-0.78).