Plus Money Picks — 2026-07-04

This is the kind of underdog that deserves a real look, not just a hopeful stab. Baltimore is live because the Orioles bring a steadier game shape into a matchup where Cincinnati’s ceiling is obvious but its certainty is not. At plus money, that balance matters more than brand-name upside.

The Orioles have a legitimate starter edge in terms of current rhythm. Brandon Young is coming off an outing with eight strikeouts and 23 whiffs, and that kind of swing-and-miss profile gives Baltimore a chance to own the first half of the game. The lineup has also been more stable lately, which helps an underdog avoid the empty innings that usually sink these tickets.

Cincinnati can flip this game quickly if Hunter Greene looks like himself right away, but a season debut after elbow surgery is still a hard spot to trust at a favorite price. The Reds have talent, yet the cleaner value case sits with the club getting the plus sign. Baltimore is the better underdog position.