Plus Money Picks — 2026-07-03

Pittsburgh is the kind of plus-money side worth taking because the dog has the more dependable starting arm and does not need the game to break in some weird way to win. Mitch Keller gives the Pirates a legitimate foothold from the opening inning, and that matters when the market is asking you to pay for a Nationals team still learning how to hold control for nine full frames. At this number, the value sits with the road side.

Washington has enough young athleticism to create stress, especially in a hot-weather game where balls carry and extra-base hits can come in clusters. But the Nationals are still more volatile from pitch to pitch, and that is a tough profile to back as the favorite when Foster Griffin is being asked to match Keller's stability. If the home team is not ahead early, the pressure starts to shift the wrong way.

The Pirates do not need to be explosive to make this ticket good. They just need Keller to keep innings clean and the lineup to capitalize on the few mistakes Washington leaves out over the plate. That is a realistic, repeatable path for an underdog, which is exactly what you want when taking plus money.