San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 13.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 13.0
Odds-107
Confidence1.158
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobbie Ray vs Sean Sullivan
Run-total lens: OVER 13.0 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.59 to 12.95 (+1.36).
Run Total 2
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals — OVER 10.27
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.27
Odds-110
Confidence0.972
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 11:05 AM ET
Pitching MatchupBraxton Ashcraft vs Carson Palmquist
Run-total lens: OVER 10.27 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft vs Carson Palmquist
Weather: 95.9°F, Wind 0.7 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 48%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.82 to 9.5 (-0.32).
Run Total 3
Miami Marlins vs Athletics — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.708
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSandy Alcantara vs Aaron Civale
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Miami Marlins vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.0 to 9.5 (-1.5).
Run Total 4
Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees — OVER 10.41
WIN
LeanOVER 10.41
Odds-107
Confidence0.671
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZebby Matthews vs Brendan Beck
Run-total lens: OVER 10.41 in Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.0 to 8.5 (-1.5).
Run Total 5
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-112
Confidence0.602
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Michael Wacha
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Michael Wacha
Weather: 75.2°F, Wind 5.4 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 79%, P.O.P. 22% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 6
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.561
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Woodruff vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs Merrill Kelly
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.09 to 9.0 (-0.09).
Run Total 7
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — OVER 9.11
WIN
LeanOVER 9.11
Odds-109
Confidence0.529
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 8:08 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChris Sale vs Sean Manaea
Run-total lens: OVER 9.11 in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Chris Sale vs Sean Manaea
Weather: 81.5°F, Wind 3.5 mph SSE (in from CF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 12% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 9.09 (+1.09).
Run Total 8
Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.484
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCal Quantrill vs Jack Flaherty
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cal Quantrill vs Jack Flaherty
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.86 to 8.0 (+0.14).
Run Total 9
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.472
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Hunter Greene
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs Hunter Greene
Weather: 88.8°F, Wind 5.8 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 51%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.18 to 9.5 (+0.32).
Run Total 10
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.444
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSonny Gray vs Sam Aldegheri
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans over.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.308
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupYoshinobu Yamamoto vs Wandy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Wandy Peralta
Weather: 76.3°F, Wind 6.3 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 46%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.55 to 9.5 (+0.95).
Run Total 12
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.281
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:08 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShota Imanaga vs Kyle Leahy
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Kyle Leahy
Weather: 67.8°F, Wind 5.4 mph ENE (in from CF), Humidity 98%, P.O.P. 74% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.3 to 8.21 (-0.09).
Run Total 13
Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.235
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Gilbert vs Shane Bieber
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs Shane Bieber
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 14
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.153
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupParker Messick vs Sean Burke
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Parker Messick vs Sean Burke
Weather: 83.6°F, Wind 3.2 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 61%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).
Run Total 15
Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — UNDER 7.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-104
Confidence0.039
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Brown vs Drew Rasmussen
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.