Run-total lens: OVER 8.91 in Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kumar Rocker vs Shane Bieber
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.591
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Cionel Pérez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Cionel Pérez
Weather: 79.9°F, Wind 6.3 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.468
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Feltner vs Connor Prielipp
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Feltner vs Connor Prielipp
Weather: 74.0°F, Wind 13.0 mph SSE (in from CF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 7.55
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.55
Odds-116
Confidence0.445
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Rasmussen vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 7.55 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Merrill Kelly
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 5
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.436
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 3:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAaron Civale vs Sam Aldegheri
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs Carlos Rodón
Weather: 75.1°F, Wind 4.3 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.38
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAnthony Kay vs Luinder Avila
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Anthony Kay vs Luinder Avila
Weather: 71.9°F, Wind 7.5 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 98%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.14
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.14
Odds-115
Confidence0.355
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Woodruff vs Ryan Rolison
Run-total lens: OVER 8.14 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs Ryan Rolison
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves — UNDER 6.56
WIN
LeanUNDER 6.56
Odds-107
Confidence0.303
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobbie Ray vs Chris Sale
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.56 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.09 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Leahy vs Tyler Phillips
Weather: 89.8°F, Wind 7.0 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.173
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMitch Keller vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller vs Brady Singer
Weather: 77.0°F, Wind 2.0 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 17% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.143
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEmerson Hancock vs Gavin Williams
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Emerson Hancock vs Gavin Williams
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 2.5 mph E (out to LF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 13
Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.41
WIN
LeanOVER 9.41
Odds-106
Confidence0.115
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Bradish vs Zack Littell
Run-total lens: OVER 9.41 in Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Bradish vs Zack Littell
Weather: 73.7°F, Wind 2.7 mph ESE (in from LF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 14
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.95
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.95
Odds-107
Confidence0.11
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEmmet Sheehan vs Michael King
Run-total lens: OVER 7.95 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown vs Jack Flaherty
Weather: 78.2°F, Wind 8.1 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 69%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)