Run-total lens: OVER 11.06 in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs Sean Sullivan
Weather: 87.1°F, Wind 9.5 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 26%, P.O.P. 6% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.5 to 10.95 (+0.45).
Run Total 2
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 8.17
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.17
Odds+103
Confidence0.582
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 4:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPeter Lambert vs Shane Bieber
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.17 in Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Peter Lambert vs Shane Bieber
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.36 (-0.14).
Run Total 3
Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.07
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.07
Odds-119
Confidence0.556
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGeorge Kirby vs Mitch Keller
Run-total lens: OVER 7.07 in Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.27 to 7.5 (-0.77).
Run Total 4
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.54
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEdward Cabrera vs Kodai Senga
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Edward Cabrera vs Kodai Senga
Weather: 67.9°F, Wind 2.9 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 85%, P.O.P. 30% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 5
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.473
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Baz vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.95 to 9.5 (+0.55).
Run Total 6
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.464
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Leahy vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Leahy vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 4.5 mph ENE (in from CF), Humidity 47%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 8.9 (+0.45).
Run Total 7
Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees — UNDER 7.43
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.43
Odds-117
Confidence0.441
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCasey Mize vs Carlos Rodón
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.43 in Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Casey Mize vs Carlos Rodón
Weather: 73.0°F, Wind 6.0 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 58%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 8
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.56
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.56
Odds-111
Confidence0.421
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupParker Messick vs Sean Burke
Run-total lens: OVER 8.56 in Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Parker Messick vs Sean Burke
Weather: 67.3°F, Wind 3.4 mph E (in from RF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.05 to 8.5 (+1.45).
Run Total 9
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 9.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.418
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Sproat vs Nick Lodolo
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.55 to 9.0 (-0.55).
Run Total 10
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — UNDER 9.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.397
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs PJ Poulin
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs PJ Poulin
Weather: 70.5°F, Wind 10.5 mph NNW (in from RF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.64 to 9.5 (+0.86).
Run Total 11
Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals — UNDER 7.64
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.64
Odds-114
Confidence0.383
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane McClanahan vs Luinder Avila
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.64 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane McClanahan vs Luinder Avila
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 12
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.315
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWandy Peralta vs JR Ritchie
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Wandy Peralta vs JR Ritchie
Weather: 71.2°F, Wind 6.8 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.08 to 7.56 (-0.52).
Run Total 13
Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers — UNDER 7.83
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.83
Odds-111
Confidence0.28
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSandy Alcantara vs Cal Quantrill
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.83 in Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sandy Alcantara vs Cal Quantrill
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.5 (-1).
Run Total 14
San Francisco Giants vs Athletics — UNDER 7.71
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.71
Odds-108
Confidence0.078
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobbie Ray vs Aaron Civale
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.71 in San Francisco Giants vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Robbie Ray vs Aaron Civale
Weather: 62.5°F, Wind 11.1 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 80%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 15
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.063
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKendry Rojas vs Justin Wrobleski
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kendry Rojas vs Justin Wrobleski
Weather: 63.7°F, Wind 9.8 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 95%, P.O.P. 85% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.73 to 7.68 (-1.05).