Run-total lens: OVER 9.57 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs Brady Singer
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.32 to 9.55 (+0.23).
Run Total 2
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 7.29
WIN
LeanOVER 7.29
Odds-104
Confidence0.738
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGavin Williams vs Anthony Kay
Run-total lens: OVER 7.29 in Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams vs Anthony Kay
Weather: 64.2°F, Wind 11.2 mph N (out to RF), Humidity 79%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.77 to 7.05 (-0.72).
Run Total 3
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — UNDER 8.25
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.25
Odds-105
Confidence0.494
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTim Mayza vs Foster Griffin
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.25 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, high humidity suppresses carry, market moved total down, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tim Mayza vs Foster Griffin
Weather: 73.9°F, Wind 13.7 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 96%, P.O.P. 70% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.0 to 8.64 (-1.36).
Run Total 4
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.422
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndre Pallante vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans over.
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.59 to 10.5 (-1.09).
Run Total 6
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-122
Confidence0.401
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Bradish vs Sam Aldegheri
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.95 to 8.83 (-0.12).
Run Total 7
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.36
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.36
Odds-109
Confidence0.337
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWill Klein vs Zebby Matthews
Run-total lens: OVER 8.36 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Will Klein vs Zebby Matthews
Weather: 75.0°F, Wind 2.9 mph N (out to RF), Humidity 40%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.32 to 8.5 (-0.82).
Run Total 8
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-121
Confidence0.277
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Brown vs Dylan Cease
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown vs Dylan Cease
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.36 to 8.5 (+1.14).
Run Total 9
Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.244
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Phillips vs Tyler Alexander
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Phillips vs Tyler Alexander
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.36 to 8.5 (+0.14).
Run Total 10
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-101
Confidence0.223
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Grant Holmes
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael King vs Grant Holmes
Weather: 69.5°F, Wind 5.6 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 72%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.27 to 3.75 (-3.52).
Run Total 11
Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals — UNDER 8.07
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.07
Odds-103
Confidence0.183
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Rasmussen vs Michael Wacha
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.07 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Michael Wacha
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 12
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.117
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGerrit Cole vs Framber Valdez
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs Framber Valdez
Weather: 73.5°F, Wind 9.5 mph NE (out to RF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 7.5 (-0.64).