Run-total lens: OVER 7.38 in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.32 to 7.0 (-0.32).
Run Total 2
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 10.5
WIN
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.71
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 74.5°F, Wind 11.3 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 32%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.5 to 10.78 (+0.28).
Run Total 3
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.07
WIN
LeanOVER 8.07
Odds-106
Confidence0.67
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.07 in Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 79.4°F, Wind 6.9 mph ESE (in from LF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.09 (+0.09).
Run Total 4
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.09
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.09
Odds-109
Confidence0.664
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.09 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.05 to 8.5 (+0.45).
Run Total 5
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.43
WIN
LeanOVER 9.43
Odds-101
Confidence0.648
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.43 in Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 82.5°F, Wind 2.3 mph ESE (in from CF), Humidity 34%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.5.
Run Total 6
Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 8.19
WIN
LeanOVER 8.19
Odds-108
Confidence0.644
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.19 in Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 80.1°F, Wind 10.6 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 35%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.32 (+0.32).
Run Total 7
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.492
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 74.8°F, Wind 8.8 mph E (in from CF), Humidity 45%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 8
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 7.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.341
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 71.8°F, Wind 5.9 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 37%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 6.86 (-1.14).
Run Total 9
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals — OVER 7.83
WIN
LeanOVER 7.83
Odds+100
Confidence0.337
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.83 in San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 7.5 (-1.5).
Run Total 10
New York Yankees vs Athletics — UNDER 9.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.281
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 72.7°F, Wind 1.8 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 51%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.86 to 9.5 (-0.36).
Run Total 11
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.69
WIN
LeanOVER 8.69
Odds-108
Confidence0.268
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.69 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 86.0°F, Wind 7.9 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.41 to 8.64 (+0.23).
Run Total 12
Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers — UNDER 7.94
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.94
Odds-113
Confidence0.241
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.94 in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.95 (+0.45).
Run Total 13
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 7.94
WIN
LeanOVER 7.94
Odds-102
Confidence0.229
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.94 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.5 (-1).
Run Total 14
Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks — UNDER 7.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-110
Confidence0.209
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.05 to 7.0 (-0.05).
Run Total 15
Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.31
WIN
LeanOVER 7.31
Odds-103
Confidence0.001
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.31 in Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.0 (-1).