Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Feltner vs Edward Cabrera
Weather: 68.4°F, Wind 13.7 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 49%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.5 to 10.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 2
Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers — OVER 8.38
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.38
Odds-108
Confidence0.669
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Brown vs Framber Valdez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.38 in Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown vs Framber Valdez
Weather: 80.8°F, Wind 8.4 mph SE (out to CF), Humidity 92%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.55 to 8.32 (+0.77).
Run Total 3
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics — OVER 10.07
WIN
LeanOVER 10.07
Odds-109
Confidence0.615
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMitch Keller vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: OVER 10.07 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 10.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 4
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.461
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavis Martin vs Gerrit Cole
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin vs Gerrit Cole
Weather: 71.6°F, Wind 11.7 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 50%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.55 to 8.5 (+0.95).
Run Total 5
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.435
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrady Singer vs Kodai Senga
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brady Singer vs Kodai Senga
Weather: 74.9°F, Wind 10.9 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 48%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 6
San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.27
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.27
Odds-109
Confidence0.341
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Andre Pallante
Run-total lens: OVER 8.27 in San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.79
WIN
LeanOVER 9.79
Odds-111
Confidence0.32
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFoster Griffin vs Michael Wacha
Run-total lens: OVER 9.79 in Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.55 to 9.77 (+1.22).
Run Total 8
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 9.0
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-114
Confidence0.319
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGrant Holmes vs Adrian Houser
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Grant Holmes vs Adrian Houser
Weather: 79.9°F, Wind 6.1 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.95 to 9.0 (+0.05).
Run Total 9
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers — OVER 7.86
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.86
Odds-106
Confidence0.303
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSlade Cecconi vs Robert Gasser
Run-total lens: OVER 7.86 in Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Slade Cecconi vs Robert Gasser
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.41 to 7.64 (-0.77).
Run Total 10
Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.06
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.06
Odds-109
Confidence0.243
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 9.06 in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Reid Detmers vs Merrill Kelly
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.05 (+0.55).
Run Total 11
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.222
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPayton Tolle vs Dylan Cease
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle vs Dylan Cease
Weather: 77.5°F, Wind 8.3 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 33%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 9.5 (+2).
Run Total 12
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.177
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Logan Gilbert
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs Logan Gilbert
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 13
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.17
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJustin Wrobleski vs Drew Rasmussen
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Justin Wrobleski vs Drew Rasmussen
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 7.5 (-0.95).
Run Total 14
Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.41
WIN
LeanOVER 8.41
Odds-107
Confidence0.011
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZebby Matthews vs Kumar Rocker
Run-total lens: OVER 8.41 in Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zebby Matthews vs Kumar Rocker
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 15
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 8.94
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.94
Odds-104
Confidence0.004
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Tyler Phillips
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.94 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.