Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 9.29
WIN
LeanOVER 9.29
Odds-110
Confidence1.038
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShohei Ohtani vs Jared Jones
Run-total lens: OVER 9.29 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.82 to 9.27 (+1.45).
Run Total 2
Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics — OVER 14.73
LOSS
LeanOVER 14.73
Odds-111
Confidence0.757
VenueLas Vegas Ballpark
Game InfoStart: 9:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Sproat vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: OVER 14.73 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 14.5 to 8.06 (-6.44).
Run Total 3
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.25
LOSS
LeanOVER 11.25
Odds-110
Confidence0.71
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShota Imanaga vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 11.25 in Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Michael Lorenzen
Weather: 88.7°F, Wind 2.0 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 10%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 12.14 to 11.18 (-0.96).
Run Total 4
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.86
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.86
Odds-106
Confidence0.495
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Peter Lambert
Run-total lens: OVER 8.86 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 5.56 (-2.94).
Run Total 5
Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.88
WIN
LeanOVER 9.88
Odds-113
Confidence0.476
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMacKenzie Gore vs Seth Lugo
Run-total lens: OVER 9.88 in Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.77 to 9.91 (+0.14).
Run Total 6
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 8.41
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.41
Odds-114
Confidence0.41
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.41 in San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson vs Ryan Gusto
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.05 to 8.5 (+0.45).
Run Total 8
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.31
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupParker Messick vs Carlos Rodón
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Parker Messick vs Carlos Rodón
Weather: 81.2°F, Wind 4.1 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 91%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.309
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs George Kirby
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs George Kirby
Weather: 75.3°F, Wind 5.6 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 95%, P.O.P. 66% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 10
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.198
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFramber Valdez vs Mike Paredes
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Framber Valdez vs Mike Paredes
Weather: 83.9°F, Wind 6.4 mph S (in from CF), Humidity 80%, P.O.P. 16% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.05 to 9.09 (+0.04).
Run Total 11
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-116
Confidence0.155
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Max Scherzer
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Max Scherzer
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals — OVER 11.64
WIN
LeanOVER 11.64
Odds-118
Confidence0.15
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 3:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobbie Ray vs Foster Griffin
Run-total lens: OVER 11.64 in San Francisco Giants vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Austin Warren vs Andre Pallante
Weather: 79.1°F, Wind 8.5 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 14
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds+101
Confidence0.115
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Rasmussen vs Jake Bennett
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Jake Bennett
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 15
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox — UNDER 7.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-102
Confidence0.047
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChris Sale vs Davis Martin
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Chris Sale vs Davis Martin
Weather: 72.1°F, Wind 17.6 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 82%, P.O.P. 78% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).