Run-total lens: OVER 8.25 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs Sonny Gray
Weather: 85.0°F, Wind 9.4 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 36%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.95 to 8.18 (+0.23).
Run Total 2
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.62
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryan Woo vs Framber Valdez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.6 to 8.5 (+0.9).
Run Total 3
Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-121
Confidence0.507
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Roki Sasaki
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.33 to 8.5 (+0.17).
Run Total 4
Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.47
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupParker Messick vs Kumar Rocker
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Parker Messick vs Kumar Rocker
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.4 to 8.05 (+0.65).
Run Total 5
Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 9.57
WIN
LeanOVER 9.57
Odds-117
Confidence0.459
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAnthony Kay vs Jesús Luzardo
Run-total lens: OVER 9.57 in Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.68 (+1.18).
Run Total 6
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.379
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Leahy vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.15 to 9.5 (+0.35).
Run Total 7
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.44
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.44
Odds-102
Confidence0.374
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZebby Matthews vs Michael Wacha
Run-total lens: OVER 8.44 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors under, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zebby Matthews vs Michael Wacha
Weather: 77.8°F, Wind 6.8 mph N (out to RF), Humidity 61%, P.O.P. 22% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.3 to 8.36 (+0.06).
Run Total 8
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 10.5
WIN
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.33
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Sproat vs Ryan Feltner
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Sproat vs Ryan Feltner
Weather: 88.8°F, Wind 14.4 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 17%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.5 to 10.5 (-1).
Run Total 9
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.319
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrey Yesavage vs Brandon Young
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trey Yesavage vs Brandon Young
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 8.0 (-0.05).
Run Total 10
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.226
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMartín Pérez vs Mitch Keller
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Martín Pérez vs Mitch Keller
Weather: 83.9°F, Wind 4.7 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 39%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 11
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.194
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFoster Griffin vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Foster Griffin vs Merrill Kelly
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.05 to 9.0 (-0.05).
Run Total 12
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.56
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.56
Odds-119
Confidence0.184
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChristian Scott vs Michael King
Run-total lens: OVER 7.56 in New York Mets vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.35 to 7.64 (+0.29).
Run Total 13
Athletics vs Houston Astros — UNDER 9.19
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.19
Odds-107
Confidence0.155
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJack Perkins vs Peter Lambert
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.19 in Athletics vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jack Perkins vs Peter Lambert
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 8.7 mph ESE (out to LF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 14% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.18 (+0.18).
Run Total 14
Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 10.9
WIN
LeanOVER 10.9
Odds-108
Confidence0.057
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEdward Cabrera vs Robbie Ray
Run-total lens: OVER 10.9 in Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.1 to 8.14 (-2.96).
Run Total 15
Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays — UNDER 7.68
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.68
Odds-107
Confidence0.044
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Gusto vs Drew Rasmussen
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.68 in Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Gusto vs Drew Rasmussen
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).