Run-total lens: OVER 9.71 in Athletics vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 87.3°F, Wind 6.5 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 14%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.55 to 10.0 (+0.45).
Run Total 2
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.29
WIN
LeanOVER 8.29
Odds+100
Confidence0.76
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.29 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 8.0 (-0.05).
Run Total 3
Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 9.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.752
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.55 to 9.0 (+0.45).
Run Total 4
Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.677
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 66.4°F, Wind 9.1 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 51%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.09 to 8.5 (+1.41).
Run Total 6
Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.57
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.57
Odds-115
Confidence0.581
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.57 in Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 72.2°F, Wind 6.5 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 38%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.18 to 9.91 (+0.73).
Run Total 7
Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.17
WIN
LeanOVER 8.17
Odds-118
Confidence0.499
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.17 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 73.9°F, Wind 11.2 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 48%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.41 to 8.32 (-0.09).
Run Total 8
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 11.43
LOSS
LeanOVER 11.43
Odds-102
Confidence0.463
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 11.43 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: 84.2°F, Wind 12.8 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 14%, P.O.P. 4% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 12.0 to 11.41 (-0.59).
Run Total 9
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — OVER 7.94
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.94
Odds-103
Confidence0.405
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.94 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.85 (-0.65).
Run Total 10
Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.373
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 69.8°F, Wind 10.9 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 38%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.14 (+0.14).
Run Total 11
Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays — UNDER 7.57
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.57
Odds-109
Confidence0.277
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.57 in Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 12
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.264
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 77.9°F, Wind 4.0 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 28%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 8.0 (-0.32).
Run Total 13
Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.05
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.05
Odds-117
Confidence0.222
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.05 in Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.23 to 7.21 (-0.02).
Run Total 14
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.218
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.86 to 8.5 (-0.36).
Run Total 15
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 8.14
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.14
Odds-108
Confidence0.034
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.14 in Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 65.8°F, Wind 3.6 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 42%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.86 to 8.05 (+0.19).