Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 79.1°F, Wind 10.3 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 61%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.77 to 8.65 (-0.12).
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.95
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.95
Odds-113
Confidence0.773
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.95 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.55 (-0.95).
Run Total 3
Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-119
Confidence0.529
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge.
Expanded total context
Weather: 79.4°F, Wind 14.5 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 79%, P.O.P. 14% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.05 to 7.86 (-1.19).
Run Total 4
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals — OVER 10.14
WIN
LeanOVER 10.14
Odds-115
Confidence0.5
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 10.14 in New York Mets vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.0 to 8.95 (-1.05).
Run Total 5
Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 7.7
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.7
Odds-108
Confidence0.394
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.7 in Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.05 to 7.6 (+0.55).
Run Total 6
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 8.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.38
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Expanded total context
Weather: 69.2°F, Wind 11.9 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 95%, P.O.P. 69% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 7.83 (-0.49).
Run Total 7
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 9.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.314
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.5 in Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: 59.3°F, Wind 0.9 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.64 to 8.5 (-1.14).
Run Total 8
Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies — UNDER 9.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.27
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.5 in Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Weather: 43.2°F, Wind 4.5 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 20% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.25
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 10
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.175
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.5 (+1).
Run Total 11
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.75
WIN
LeanOVER 8.75
Odds-109
Confidence0.159
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.75 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.75 (-0.25).
Run Total 12
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers — UNDER 10.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 10.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.134
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 10.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, high humidity suppresses carry, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 8.11 (-2.39).
Run Total 13
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 9.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.119
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.91 to 9.0 (+0.09).
Run Total 14
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 8.45
WIN
LeanOVER 8.45
Odds-106
Confidence0.078
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.45 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.2 (-0.3).