Run-total lens: OVER 8.95 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Weather: 63.8°F, Wind 2.9 mph NNW (in from RF), Humidity 30%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.91 to 8.5 (-0.41).
Run Total 2
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.9
WIN
LeanOVER 7.9
Odds-106
Confidence0.636
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 7.9 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.45 to 8.0 (+0.55).
Run Total 3
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-119
Confidence0.524
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 76.2°F, Wind 7.7 mph NNE (in from LF), Humidity 76%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.27 to 8.55 (+0.28).
Run Total 4
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.69
WIN
LeanOVER 8.69
Odds-113
Confidence0.184
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.69 in San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.73 (-0.77).
Run Total 5
Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-114
Confidence0.162
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: cool run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Weather: 55.0°F, Wind 8.7 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 45%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.85 to 8.5 (+0.65).
Run Total 6
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.3
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.3
Odds-108
Confidence0.161
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Run-total lens: OVER 8.3 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.05 (+0.55).