Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.15 to 8.5 (+0.35).
Run Total 2
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-116
Confidence0.78
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Colin Rea
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Colin Rea
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 3
Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.762
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor Rogers vs Andrew Alvarez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.91 to 9.0 (+0.09).
Run Total 4
Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.521
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNathan Eovaldi vs Patrick Corbin
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs Patrick Corbin
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.86 (-0.64).
Run Total 5
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.493
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPayton Tolle vs Will Warren
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 8.5 (+0.05).
Run Total 6
Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.456
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTaj Bradley vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Taj Bradley vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Weather: 75.5°F, Wind 4.5 mph E (in from CF), Humidity 58%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 7
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 7.94
WIN
LeanOVER 7.94
Odds-110
Confidence0.453
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Andrew Abbott
Run-total lens: OVER 7.94 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.55 to 7.86 (+0.31).
Run Total 8
Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals — UNDER 8.18
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.18
Odds-110
Confidence0.403
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Meyer vs Michael McGreevy
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.18 in Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Max Meyer vs Michael McGreevy
Weather: 75.4°F, Wind 5.4 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 90%, P.O.P. 40% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.06
WIN
LeanOVER 8.06
Odds-106
Confidence0.392
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSteven Cruz vs David Sandlin
Run-total lens: OVER 8.06 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Steven Cruz vs David Sandlin
Weather: 64.1°F, Wind 9.2 mph NNE (out to RF), Humidity 91%, P.O.P. 9% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 10
Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.352
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Zac Gallen
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Zac Gallen
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 11
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 7.72
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.72
Odds-112
Confidence0.317
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 10:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor McDonald vs Reynaldo López
Run-total lens: OVER 7.72 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trevor McDonald vs Reynaldo López
Weather: 62.2°F, Wind 13.8 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 88%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.67 to 7.55 (-0.12).
Run Total 12
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.81
WIN
LeanOVER 7.81
Odds-114
Confidence0.262
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRoki Sasaki vs Walker Buehler
Run-total lens: OVER 7.81 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Roki Sasaki vs Walker Buehler
Weather: 69.6°F, Wind 5.4 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 69%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.55 to 7.85 (+0.3).
Run Total 13
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.115
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLuis Castillo vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Luis Castillo vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: 71.4°F, Wind 3.5 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.95 (+0.45).
Run Total 14
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.064
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJ.T. Ginn vs Walbert Ureña
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Pitching MatchupKeider Montero vs Spencer Arrighetti
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Keider Montero vs Spencer Arrighetti
Weather: 68.5°F, Wind 5.1 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 13% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.27 to 8.5 (+0.23).