Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Rhett Lowder
Weather: 81.3°F, Wind 13.9 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 29%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.5 (+1).
Run Total 2
St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.05
WIN
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-115
Confidence0.946
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael McGreevy vs Seth Lugo
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Seth Lugo
Weather: 78.6°F, Wind 1.9 mph NNW (in from RF), Humidity 51%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.09
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.09
Odds-115
Confidence0.852
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Brandon Eisert
Run-total lens: OVER 8.09 in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.91 to 8.5 (+0.59).
Run Total 4
Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.497
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGriffin Jax vs PJ Poulin
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Griffin Jax vs PJ Poulin
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.62 (+0.62).
Run Total 5
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-119
Confidence0.474
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Soroka vs Connor Prielipp
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Soroka vs Connor Prielipp
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 6
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.436
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Martín Pérez
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Martín Pérez
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.42
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRoki Sasaki vs Trey Gibson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Roki Sasaki vs Trey Gibson
Weather: 66.2°F, Wind 9.5 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.5 (-1).
Run Total 8
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 10.0
WIN
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.378
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJeffrey Springs vs José Soriano
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.95 to 18.56 (+8.61).
Run Total 9
Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.324
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob deGrom vs Randy Vásquez
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom vs Randy Vásquez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.05 to 7.5 (+0.45).
Run Total 10
Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 7.88
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.88
Odds-109
Confidence0.26
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLake Bachar vs Landen Roupp
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.88 in Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Lake Bachar vs Landen Roupp
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.91 (-0.09).
Run Total 11
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 7.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-101
Confidence0.223
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBen Brown vs Kevin Gausman
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors under, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ben Brown vs Kevin Gausman
Weather: 74.5°F, Wind 3.3 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 44%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.32 to 9.18 (+1.86).
Run Total 12
Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.218
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTanner Bibee vs Tatsuya Imai
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee vs Tatsuya Imai
Weather: 80.3°F, Wind 1.2 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 46% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 13
Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 7.38
WIN
LeanOVER 7.38
Odds-105
Confidence0.171
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Miller vs Ranger Suarez
Run-total lens: OVER 7.38 in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller vs Ranger Suarez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 6.59 to 7.5 (+0.91).
Run Total 14
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 10.25
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.25
Odds-109
Confidence0.152
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBubba Chandler vs Kyle Freeland
Run-total lens: OVER 10.25 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bubba Chandler vs Kyle Freeland
Weather: 84.0°F, Wind 4.4 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 22%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.5 to 10.14 (-1.36).