Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros — OVER 10.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.857
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFoster Griffin vs Spencer Arrighetti
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Foster Griffin vs Spencer Arrighetti
Weather: 82.6°F, Wind 4.0 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-114
Confidence0.712
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChristian Scott vs Steven Cruz
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.55 to 9.09 (+0.54).
Run Total 4
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.619
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Harrison vs Michael McGreevy
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison vs Michael McGreevy
Weather: 86.7°F, Wind 7.2 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 63%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.05 to 8.5 (+0.45).
Run Total 5
Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.554
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChase Burns vs Alan Rangel
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Chase Burns vs Alan Rangel
Weather: 81.0°F, Wind 2.1 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 6
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 10.0
In Progress
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.545
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGabriel Hughes vs Roki Sasaki
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.95 to 9.38 (-0.57).
Run Total 7
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.521
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavis Martin vs Jake Bennett
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin vs Jake Bennett
Weather: 83.0°F, Wind 5.3 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 63%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 9.0 (+1).
Run Total 8
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-112
Confidence0.381
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupConnor Prielipp vs Slade Cecconi
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Connor Prielipp vs Slade Cecconi
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.32 to 8.5 (+0.18).
Run Total 9
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.338
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDean Kremer vs Colin Rea
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer vs Colin Rea
Weather: 82.6°F, Wind 4.9 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.32 to 9.5 (+0.18).
Run Total 10
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 7.0
WIN
LeanOVER 7.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.281
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 3:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDylan Cease vs Logan Webb
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Logan Webb
Weather: 62.5°F, Wind 7.6 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 76%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
Detroit Tigers vs Athletics — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.257
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTroy Melton vs Jeffrey Springs
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.82 to 9.0 (+0.18).
Run Total 12
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 7.0
WIN
LeanOVER 7.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.256
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMacKenzie Gore vs Walbert Ureña
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: MacKenzie Gore vs Walbert Ureña
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 13
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-100
Confidence0.254
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGerrit Cole vs Shane McClanahan
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs Shane McClanahan
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 14
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.83
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.83
Odds-108
Confidence0.11
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Jose Cabrera
Run-total lens: OVER 8.83 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael King vs Jose Cabrera
Weather: 71.4°F, Wind 6.1 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.95 to 8.85 (+0.9).
Run Total 15
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-103
Confidence0.076
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGeorge Kirby vs Tyler Phillips
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: George Kirby vs Tyler Phillips
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).