Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.93
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.93
Odds-114
Confidence0.898
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJustin Wrobleski vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 9.93 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Justin Wrobleski vs Michael Lorenzen
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.5 to 9.91 (+0.41).
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.797
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs Andrew Abbott
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs Andrew Abbott
Weather: 82.2°F, Wind 3.1 mph NNE (out to RF), Humidity 69%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 8.57
WIN
LeanOVER 8.57
Odds-113
Confidence0.649
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Hurston Waldrep
Run-total lens: OVER 8.57 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.95 to 8.55 (+0.6).
Run Total 4
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.641
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSeth Lugo vs Cionel Pérez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Seth Lugo vs Cionel Pérez
Weather: 68.7°F, Wind 7.0 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 85%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 5
Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros — OVER 9.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.56
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndrew Alvarez vs Tatsuya Imai
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Alvarez vs Tatsuya Imai
Weather: 82.1°F, Wind 1.8 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 6
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.403
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTaj Bradley vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Taj Bradley vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: 80.4°F, Wind 4.8 mph SE (in from CF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 7
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-114
Confidence0.369
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWill Warren vs Ian Seymour
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Will Warren vs Ian Seymour
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 8
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-110
Confidence0.343
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPayton Tolle vs Noah Schultz
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle vs Noah Schultz
Weather: 76.9°F, Wind 4.1 mph E (in from RF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 8.0 (-0.32).
Run Total 9
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 7.57
WIN
LeanOVER 7.57
Odds-112
Confidence0.282
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob deGrom vs José Soriano
Run-total lens: OVER 7.57 in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, run context favors under, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom vs José Soriano
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.0 to 7.55 (+0.55).
Run Total 10
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 6.89
LOSS
LeanUNDER 6.89
Odds-117
Confidence0.255
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSpencer Miles vs Trevor McDonald
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.89 in Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Spencer Miles vs Trevor McDonald
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.55 to 6.82 (-0.73).
Run Total 11
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — UNDER 7.71
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.71
Odds-103
Confidence0.221
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGermán Márquez vs Zac Gallen
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.71 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Germán Márquez vs Zac Gallen
Weather: 73.0°F, Wind 7.4 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.95 (-0.55).
Run Total 12
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.14
WIN
LeanOVER 8.14
Odds-112
Confidence0.204
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Matt Svanson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.14 in Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Matt Svanson
Weather: 83.4°F, Wind 6.7 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.05 (+0.55).
Run Total 13
Detroit Tigers vs Athletics — UNDER 8.71
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.71
Odds-104
Confidence0.169
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs J.T. Ginn
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.71 in Detroit Tigers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs J.T. Ginn
Weather: 82.2°F, Wind 8.8 mph E (in from RF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.77 (+0.77).
Run Total 14
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers — OVER 8.07
WIN
LeanOVER 8.07
Odds-104
Confidence0.168
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Dobbins vs Robert Gasser
Run-total lens: OVER 8.07 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Dobbins vs Robert Gasser
Weather: 83.4°F, Wind 6.7 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.05 (+0.55).
Run Total 15
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs — UNDER 9.14
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.14
Odds-105
Confidence0.163
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Baz vs Matthew Boyd
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.14 in Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz vs Matthew Boyd
Weather: 79.0°F, Wind 6.1 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 84%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.09 (-0.41).
Run Total 16
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.163
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryan Woo vs Max Meyer
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryan Woo vs Max Meyer
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.5 (+0.5).