Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.94
LOSS
LeanOVER 11.94
Odds-106
Confidence0.95
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 9:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Run-total lens: OVER 11.94 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Weather: 88.1°F, Wind 5.9 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 27%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.27 to 11.95 (+1.68).
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — OVER 8.25
WIN
LeanOVER 8.25
Odds-107
Confidence0.714
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCristopher Sánchez vs Freddy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 8.25 in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Freddy Peralta
Weather: 79.4°F, Wind 9.2 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 44%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.9 (+0.4).
Run Total 3
Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.23
WIN
LeanOVER 9.23
Odds-112
Confidence0.644
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTaj Bradley vs Zac Gallen
Run-total lens: OVER 9.23 in Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Taj Bradley vs Zac Gallen
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.23 to 16.62 (+7.39).
Run Total 4
Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.486
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChris Sale vs Kyle Harrison
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.27 to 8.91 (+1.64).
Run Total 5
New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.476
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWill Warren vs Andrew Abbott
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Will Warren vs Andrew Abbott
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 15.7 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 39%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.36 (-1.14).
Run Total 6
Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.405
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMacKenzie Gore vs Walker Buehler
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: MacKenzie Gore vs Walker Buehler
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.55 to 7.5 (-0.05).
Run Total 7
Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.75
WIN
LeanOVER 8.75
Odds-110
Confidence0.385
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSpencer Arrighetti vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.75 in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Spencer Arrighetti vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: 74.6°F, Wind 1.1 mph E (out to LF), Humidity 92%, P.O.P. 61% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 8.68 (+0.18).
Run Total 8
Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 7.7
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.7
Odds-107
Confidence0.317
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Meyer vs Trevor McDonald
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.7 in Miami Marlins vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Max Meyer vs Trevor McDonald
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.86 to 7.77 (-0.09).
Run Total 9
Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox — UNDER 6.56
WIN
LeanUNDER 6.56
Odds-107
Confidence0.315
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEmerson Hancock vs Connelly Early
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.56 in Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Emerson Hancock vs Connelly Early
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.41 to 6.59 (-0.82).
Run Total 10
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.95
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.95
Odds-105
Confidence0.308
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTroy Melton vs Sean Newcomb
Run-total lens: OVER 8.95 in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Troy Melton vs Sean Newcomb
Weather: 75.3°F, Wind 10.8 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 49%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 11
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-102
Confidence0.278
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 10:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJ.T. Ginn vs Walbert Ureña
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.44 (-0.06).
Run Total 12
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-117
Confidence0.231
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupColin Rea vs Patrick Corbin
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.18 to 6.64 (-2.54).
Run Total 13
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles — UNDER 9.06
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.06
Odds-109
Confidence0.213
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupYoshinobu Yamamoto vs Trevor Rogers
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.06 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Trevor Rogers
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.09 (+0.59).
Run Total 14
Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.192
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCade Cavalli vs Ian Seymour
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cade Cavalli vs Ian Seymour
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).