Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — UNDER 8.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.755
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupYoshinobu Yamamoto vs Kyle Hart
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Kyle Hart
Weather: 70.4°F, Wind 7.4 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 72%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.86 to 8.0 (+0.14).
Run Total 2
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.744
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Harrison vs David Peterson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison vs David Peterson
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.95 to 8.11 (+0.16).
Run Total 3
Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-114
Confidence0.684
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 3:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDylan Cease vs Cal Quantrill
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Cal Quantrill
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.85 to 8.5 (+0.65).
Run Total 4
San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.645
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Webb vs Bryce Elder
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb vs Bryce Elder
Weather: 64.6°F, Wind 14.6 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.68 to 7.5 (-0.18).
Run Total 5
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-103
Confidence0.622
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTim Mayza vs Christian Scott
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tim Mayza vs Christian Scott
Weather: 72.3°F, Wind 2.9 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 88%, P.O.P. 55% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 6
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.8
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.8
Odds-111
Confidence0.503
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Wacha vs Davis Martin
Run-total lens: OVER 8.8 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Wacha vs Davis Martin
Weather: 70.0°F, Wind 9.5 mph NE (in from RF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.05 to 8.91 (+0.86).
Run Total 7
Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.472
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMike Paredes vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Mike Paredes vs Michael Lorenzen
Weather: 79.1°F, Wind 11.9 mph SE (in from CF), Humidity 54%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.95 (-0.05).
Run Total 8
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 9.2
WIN
LeanOVER 9.2
Odds+101
Confidence0.374
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChase Burns vs Jared Jones
Run-total lens: OVER 9.2 in Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 9
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.348
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Gilbert vs Slade Cecconi
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs Slade Cecconi
Weather: 74.4°F, Wind 5.2 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.86 to 7.5 (-0.36).
Run Total 10
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — UNDER 8.05
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.05
Odds-105
Confidence0.251
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJake Bennett vs Gerrit Cole
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.05 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jake Bennett vs Gerrit Cole
Weather: 74.1°F, Wind 8.4 mph ENE (in from CF), Humidity 76%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.86 (-0.64).
Run Total 11
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.23
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFramber Valdez vs Kai-Wei Teng
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Framber Valdez vs Kai-Wei Teng
Weather: 73.9°F, Wind 5.9 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 69%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 12
St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-101
Confidence0.229
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndre Pallante vs Ryan Gusto
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.43 (+0.93).
Run Total 13
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.22
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJose Cabrera vs Cole Sulser
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jose Cabrera vs Cole Sulser
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.95 to 7.59 (-0.36).
Run Total 14
Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals — UNDER 9.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-116
Confidence0.171
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Foster Griffin
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs Foster Griffin
Weather: 75.2°F, Wind 7.1 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 34% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 15
Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics — UNDER 8.45
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.45
Odds-108
Confidence0.152
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.45 in Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.