Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-111
Confidence1.129
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCristopher Sánchez vs Noah Cameron
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Noah Cameron
Weather: 86.7°F, Wind 4.6 mph ENE (in from CF), Humidity 56%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.712
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReynaldo López vs Freddy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Reynaldo López vs Freddy Peralta
Weather: 84.1°F, Wind 8.9 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.495
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMiles Mikolas vs Mike Burrows
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas vs Mike Burrows
Weather: 82.4°F, Wind 4.3 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 81%, P.O.P. 23% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.0 to 9.0 (-1).
Run Total 4
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 7.5
In Progress
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.491
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Landen Roupp
Weather: 62.1°F, Wind 11.9 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.73 to 7.56 (-0.17).
Run Total 5
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.45
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.45
Odds+102
Confidence0.353
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax
Run-total lens: OVER 7.45 in New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Griffin Jax
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 6
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.33
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.33
Odds-112
Confidence0.319
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEric Lauer vs Kyle Freeland
Run-total lens: OVER 9.33 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eric Lauer vs Kyle Freeland
Weather: 73.0°F, Wind 7.1 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 9.5 (-1).
Run Total 7
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.5
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.221
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWalker Buehler vs Brandon Pfaadt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Walker Buehler vs Brandon Pfaadt
Weather: 72.4°F, Wind 8.7 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 8
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 7.75
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.75
Odds-113
Confidence0.199
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Dustin May
Run-total lens: OVER 7.75 in Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Drohan vs Dustin May
Weather: 84.7°F, Wind 7.9 mph NNE (in from RF), Humidity 63%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.56 (-0.44).