Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: MacKenzie Gore vs Cristian Javier
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.58
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPayton Tolle vs Zach Thornton
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle vs Zach Thornton
Weather: 85.1°F, Wind 3.7 mph NNW (in from CF), Humidity 47%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers — OVER 7.95
WIN
LeanOVER 7.95
Odds-114
Confidence0.562
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 12:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Robert Gasser
Run-total lens: OVER 7.95 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs Robert Gasser
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 2.7 mph ESE (in from CF), Humidity 79%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.55
WIN
LeanOVER 8.55
Odds-119
Confidence0.561
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKevin Gausman vs Germán Márquez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.55 in Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Germán Márquez
Weather: 77.1°F, Wind 8.6 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 5
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.05
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-119
Confidence0.444
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor McDonald vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trevor McDonald vs Michael Lorenzen
Weather: 75.8°F, Wind 2.9 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 7.55
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.55
Odds-106
Confidence0.407
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Phillips vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.55 in Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Phillips vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.359
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJ.T. Ginn vs Noah Schultz
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Athletics vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: J.T. Ginn vs Noah Schultz
Weather: 79.7°F, Wind 7.2 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 80%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.36
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.36
Odds-106
Confidence0.343
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWill Warren vs Cade Cavalli
Run-total lens: OVER 9.36 in New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Will Warren vs Cade Cavalli
Weather: 82.8°F, Wind 8.1 mph ENE (in from CF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 8% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies — UNDER 7.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.318
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Zack Wheeler
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs Zack Wheeler
Weather: 82.0°F, Wind 9.3 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 53%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 10
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.317
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndrew Abbott vs Matthew Boyd
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Abbott vs Matthew Boyd
Weather: 81.5°F, Wind 7.6 mph NE (in from RF), Humidity 78%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 7.95
WIN
LeanOVER 7.95
Odds-107
Confidence0.317
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupIan Seymour vs Emerson Hancock
Run-total lens: OVER 7.95 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ian Seymour vs Emerson Hancock
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.05
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-117
Confidence0.302
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTaj Bradley vs José Soriano
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Taj Bradley vs José Soriano
Weather: 87.2°F, Wind 10.2 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 66%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 13
Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals — UNDER 9.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.205
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Baz vs Seth Lugo
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz vs Seth Lugo
Weather: 81.5°F, Wind 8.3 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 6% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 14
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 7.55
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.55
Odds-113
Confidence0.192
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDanny Young vs Dustin May
Run-total lens: OVER 7.55 in Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Danny Young vs Dustin May
Weather: 84.9°F, Wind 7.8 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 15
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-103
Confidence0.055
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEmmet Sheehan vs Mitch Bratt
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.