New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.775
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Jesús Luzardo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 2
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.62
WIN
LeanOVER 7.62
Odds-108
Confidence0.562
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane McClanahan vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: OVER 7.62 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane McClanahan vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 3
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.7
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.7
Odds-111
Confidence0.449
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 10:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Webb vs Grayson Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.7 in San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.7 (+0.7).
Run Total 4
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.29
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.29
Odds-115
Confidence0.439
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Beck Way
Run-total lens: OVER 8.29 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs Beck Way
Weather: 78.4°F, Wind 5.4 mph SE (in from CF), Humidity 44%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.23 (+0.73).
Run Total 5
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics — OVER 10.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.405
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZebby Matthews vs Jacob Lopez
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zebby Matthews vs Jacob Lopez
Weather: 78.0°F, Wind 12.3 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.5 to 10.5 (+1).
Run Total 6
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.354
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCarson Palmquist vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Carson Palmquist vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Weather: 79.5°F, Wind 6.5 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 46%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 7
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.348
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJared Jones vs Matthew Boyd
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jared Jones vs Matthew Boyd
Weather: 75.2°F, Wind 5.5 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.09 to 8.0 (-0.09).
Run Total 8
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 8.31
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.31
Odds-109
Confidence0.347
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDustin May vs Rhett Lowder
Run-total lens: OVER 8.31 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dustin May vs Rhett Lowder
Weather: 72.9°F, Wind 4.3 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 82%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.36 (-0.14).
Run Total 9
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-112
Confidence0.29
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Miller vs MacKenzie Gore
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller vs MacKenzie Gore
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 10
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — UNDER 8.12
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.12
Odds-112
Confidence0.268
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Gusto vs Germán Márquez
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.12 in Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Gusto vs Germán Márquez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.05 (-0.95).
Run Total 11
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-115
Confidence0.265
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Drohan vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 12
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.248
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Manaea vs Roki Sasaki
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.0 (-1).
Run Total 13
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — UNDER 8.12
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.12
Odds-106
Confidence0.171
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavis Martin vs Spencer Arrighetti
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.12 in Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin vs Spencer Arrighetti
Weather: 74.3°F, Wind 10.3 mph ESE (in from CF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.15 (-0.35).
Run Total 14
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.166
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPatrick Sandoval vs Trey Yesavage
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Patrick Sandoval vs Trey Yesavage
Weather: 78.4°F, Wind 9.2 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 44%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.5 (-1).
Run Total 15
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.124
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor Rogers vs Grant Holmes
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: savant contact quality leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers vs Grant Holmes
Weather: 77.1°F, Wind 8.1 mph ESE (in from LF), Humidity 49%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)