Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.14 to 8.75 (+0.61).
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 9.81
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.81
Odds-111
Confidence0.646
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs Justin Wrobleski
Run-total lens: OVER 9.81 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs Justin Wrobleski
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.5 (+1).
Run Total 3
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.11
WIN
LeanOVER 8.11
Odds-104
Confidence0.616
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFramber Valdez vs David Peterson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.11 in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Framber Valdez vs David Peterson
Weather: 75.4°F, Wind 9.6 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 4% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 4
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.532
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKumar Rocker vs Noah Schultz
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kumar Rocker vs Noah Schultz
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 5
Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.17
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.17
Odds-114
Confidence0.496
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai
Run-total lens: OVER 8.17 in Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Phillips vs Tatsuya Imai
Weather: 96.8°F, Wind 3.3 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 37%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.77 to 8.18 (-0.59).
Run Total 6
Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.5
WIN
LeanOVER 11.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.475
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCarson Palmquist vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 11.5 in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Carson Palmquist vs Michael Lorenzen
Total Movement: Total moved down from 12.77 to 11.5 (-1.27).
Run Total 7
Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 9.15
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.15
Odds-108
Confidence0.465
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWalbert Ureña vs Matthew Liberatore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.15 in Los Angeles Angels vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Walbert Ureña vs Matthew Liberatore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Reynaldo López vs Walker Buehler
Weather: 86.8°F, Wind 7.4 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 5% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.67 (-0.33).
Run Total 9
New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 8.58
In Progress
LeanOVER 8.58
Odds-112
Confidence0.39
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Fried vs Bubba Chandler
Run-total lens: OVER 8.58 in New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.57 (-0.43).
Run Total 10
San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.377
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Mahle vs Luinder Avila
Weather: 87.4°F, Wind 11.5 mph NNW (in from RF), Humidity 47%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 11
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics — OVER 9.15
WIN
LeanOVER 9.15
Odds-111
Confidence0.249
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKohl Drake vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: OVER 9.15 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kohl Drake vs Jack Perkins
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.67 to 9.09 (-0.58).
Run Total 12
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — OVER 7.61
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.61
Odds-113
Confidence0.196
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Sproat vs Zac Thornton
Run-total lens: OVER 7.61 in Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Sproat vs Zac Thornton
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.86 to 7.68 (-1.18).
Run Total 13
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.082
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.59 to 8.4 (+0.81).
Run Total 14
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.016
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupParker Messick vs Kendry Rojas
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 8.0 (-0.14).
Run Total 15
Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.011
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChase Burns vs Luis Castillo
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Chase Burns vs Luis Castillo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.95 (+0.45).