Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Washington Nationals vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 11.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Greene vs Ryan Feltner
Weather: 98.2°F, Wind 5.2 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 14%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.764
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNoah Cameron vs Germán Márquez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Noah Cameron vs Germán Márquez
Weather: 91.0°F, Wind 1.7 mph ESE (in from LF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.45
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.45
Odds-101
Confidence0.675
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 4:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCasey Mize vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: OVER 9.45 in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.55
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.55
Odds-118
Confidence0.561
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNolan McLean vs Alan Rangel
Run-total lens: OVER 8.55 in New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nolan McLean vs Alan Rangel
Weather: 77.7°F, Wind 9.4 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.559
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWill Klein vs Ryan Yarbrough
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.46
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 12:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Zebby Matthews
Weather: 75.4°F, Wind 7.9 mph ENE (in from CF), Humidity 68%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 10
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.439
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Hunter Brown
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs Hunter Brown
Weather: 88.9°F, Wind 3.6 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 80%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 7.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds+100
Confidence0.382
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Gilbert vs Robbie Ray
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs Robbie Ray
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.09
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.09
Odds-111
Confidence0.233
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 12:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Burke vs Trey Yesavage
Run-total lens: OVER 8.09 in Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Burke vs Trey Yesavage
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 13
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.223
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEury Pérez vs Robert Gasser
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Robert Gasser
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 14
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 6.91
LOSS
LeanUNDER 6.91
Odds-117
Confidence0.206
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: UNDER 6.91 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: 75.5°F, Wind 8.1 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 63%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 15
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds+101
Confidence0.172
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNathan Eovaldi vs Grant Holmes
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.