Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.64 to 8.68 (+0.04).
Run Total 2
Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres — OVER 10.08
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.08
Odds-112
Confidence0.71
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRandy Dobnak vs Griffin Canning
Run-total lens: OVER 10.08 in Kansas City Royals vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.64 to 10.09 (-0.55).
Run Total 3
Athletics vs Washington Nationals — OVER 10.5
WIN
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-112
Confidence0.672
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 10:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJ.T. Ginn vs Zack Littell
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Athletics vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.59 to 10.5 (-0.09).
Run Total 4
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.18
WIN
LeanOVER 7.18
Odds-108
Confidence0.638
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGavin Williams vs Jared Jones
Run-total lens: OVER 7.18 in Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.18 (-0.32).
Run Total 5
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.18
WIN
LeanOVER 7.18
Odds-108
Confidence0.605
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Allen vs Mason Montgomery
Run-total lens: OVER 7.18 in Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.18 (-0.32).
Run Total 6
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.75
WIN
LeanOVER 7.75
Odds-114
Confidence0.59
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPatrick Sandoval vs Ian Seymour
Run-total lens: OVER 7.75 in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Patrick Sandoval vs Ian Seymour
Weather: 70.4°F, Wind 9.6 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 55% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.23 (-1.27).
Run Total 7
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 11.0
WIN
LeanOVER 11.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.463
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 3:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTomoyuki Sugano vs Rhett Lowder
Run-total lens: OVER 11.0 in Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano vs Rhett Lowder
Weather: 93.0°F, Wind 2.1 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 28%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 12.95 to 11.09 (-1.86).
Run Total 8
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers — UNDER 8.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.373
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Meyer vs Shane Drohan
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Max Meyer vs Shane Drohan
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.09 (+0.09).
Run Total 9
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.08
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.08
Odds-112
Confidence0.354
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 3:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavis Martin vs Shane Bieber
Run-total lens: OVER 8.08 in Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin vs Shane Bieber
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.14 (-0.36).
Run Total 10
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.338
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTaj Bradley vs Matthew Boyd
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, high humidity suppresses carry.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 7.6 (-1.4).
Run Total 11
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.9
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.9
Odds-107
Confidence0.291
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Grayson Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.9 in Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs Grayson Rodriguez
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.86 (+0.86).
Run Total 12
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros — UNDER 8.08
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.08
Odds-113
Confidence0.249
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor Rogers vs Spencer Arrighetti
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.08 in Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total down, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers vs Spencer Arrighetti
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.55 to 8.1 (-0.45).
Run Total 13
Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.248
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupOwen Murphy vs MacKenzie Gore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.22
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDustin May vs Brandon Pfaadt
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dustin May vs Brandon Pfaadt
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 15
Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 7.33
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.33
Odds-111
Confidence0.204
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 8:08 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryan Woo vs Logan Webb
Run-total lens: OVER 7.33 in Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryan Woo vs Logan Webb
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 6.82 to 7.32 (+0.5).
Run Total 16
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers — UNDER 8.0
In Progress
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.016
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:08 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto