Run-total lens: OVER 8.59 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle vs Shane Baz
Weather: 79.3°F, Wind 11.2 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 37%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 8.11 (-0.34).
Run Total 2
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres — OVER 9.21
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.21
Odds-108
Confidence0.832
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Elder vs JP Sears
Run-total lens: OVER 9.21 in Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Elder vs JP Sears
Weather: 90.1°F, Wind 3.4 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 53%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 3
Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 12.62
LOSS
LeanOVER 12.62
Odds-118
Confidence0.648
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndrew Alvarez vs Kyle Freeland
Run-total lens: OVER 12.62 in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Alvarez vs Kyle Freeland
Weather: 89.0°F, Wind 8.7 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 25%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.77 to 12.73 (+0.96).
Run Total 4
Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 9.36
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.36
Odds-111
Confidence0.614
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Wacha vs Trevor McDonald
Run-total lens: OVER 9.36 in Kansas City Royals vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Wacha vs Trevor McDonald
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 9.5 (-1).
Run Total 5
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 7.55
WIN
LeanOVER 7.55
Odds-113
Confidence0.498
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob deGrom vs Erick Fedde
Run-total lens: OVER 7.55 in Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom vs Erick Fedde
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.38
WIN
LeanOVER 8.38
Odds-107
Confidence0.491
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJack Flaherty vs Jameson Taillon
Run-total lens: OVER 8.38 in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty vs Jameson Taillon
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.59 to 8.5 (-3.09).
Run Total 7
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics — OVER 9.09
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.09
Odds-117
Confidence0.471
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMitch Bratt vs Jeffrey Springs
Run-total lens: OVER 9.09 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Mitch Bratt vs Jeffrey Springs
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.09 to 7.44 (-1.65).
Run Total 8
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.69
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.69
Odds-114
Confidence0.383
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Leahy vs José Soriano
Run-total lens: OVER 8.69 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.55 to 9.0 (+0.45).
Run Total 9
Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins — OVER 8.75
WIN
LeanOVER 8.75
Odds-113
Confidence0.352
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRonel Blanco vs Janson Junk
Run-total lens: OVER 8.75 in Houston Astros vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ronel Blanco vs Janson Junk
Weather: 93.9°F, Wind 0.8 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 47%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 8.77 (+0.27).
Run Total 10
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-120
Confidence0.329
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Freddy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Freddy Peralta
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.32 to 8.77 (+1.45).
Run Total 11
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.306
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCristopher Sánchez vs Emmet Sheehan
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Emmet Sheehan
Weather: 83.2°F, Wind 5.4 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 39%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.23 to 8.5 (+0.27).
Run Total 12
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.284
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBraxton Ashcraft vs Ryan Weathers
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft vs Ryan Weathers
Weather: 78.5°F, Wind 10.5 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 42%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.68 to 9.0 (+1.32).
Run Total 13
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.259
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGeorge Kirby vs Andrew Abbott
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: George Kirby vs Andrew Abbott
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 14
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.066
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDylan Cease vs Nick Martinez
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Nick Martinez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 15
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.25
WIN
LeanOVER 8.25
Odds-109
Confidence0.029
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJoe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee
Run-total lens: OVER 8.25 in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Joe Ryan vs Tanner Bibee
Weather: 77.7°F, Wind 4.0 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.14 (+0.64).